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La boucle prix-salaires des modèles de l'économie française : structure et robustesse

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  • Pierre Morin
  • Jean-François Loué

Abstract

[eng] The wage-price spiral of the models of the French economy : structure and robustness. . This article summarizes the main ecometrical and economical conclusions of the working party, commun to the INSEE and the " Direction de la Prevision ", which was mandated to assess the robustness of the structure and the coefficients of the wage-price spiral of the french macroeconomic models. This work revealed that the significance of some variables is sornetimes strongly dependant of the variance observed during a very short period, and this exigence of robustness, sometimes reducing, leads to drop some variables. This work has been completed by a special examination of the influence of different kinds of costs, some tests of importants problems of the wage policy, and a particulier attention of the way the whole spiral is working.. Then the explanation of inflation associated to the price-wage spiral is dominated by the behaviour of import prices. The influence of unemployment is also robust, but nevertheless secondary.. [fre] La boucle prix-salaires des modeles de l'économie française structure et robustesse. . Cet article rend compte des principales conclusions économétriques et économiques du groupe de travail commun à 1'INSEE et à la direction de la Prévision qui a eu pour mandat de vérifier la robustesse de la structure et des coefficients de la boucle prix-salaires des modèles macro-économiques français. Ce travail a montré que la signification de certaines variables est quelquefois fortement dépendante de la variance observée pendant des périodes très courtes, et cette exigence de robustesse, quelquefois simplificatrice, conduit à l'abandon de quelques variables. Ce travail a été complété par un examen spécial de l'influence des différents types de coûts, quelques tests de problèmes importants propres à la politique salariale, et par une attention particulière à la façon dont l'ensemble de la boucle fonctionne. Alors, l'explication de l'inflation associée à la boucle prix-salaires est dominée par le comportement des prix à l'importation. L'influence du chômage est également robuste, mais néanmoins secondaire.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Morin & Jean-François Loué, 1986. "La boucle prix-salaires des modèles de l'économie française : structure et robustesse," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1067-1092.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1986_num_37_6_408957
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1986.408957
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1986.408957
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Bleuze & Michel Gilles & Thierry Pujol, 1988. "La libération des prix des services : une solution pour l'emploi ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 24(1), pages 81-102.
    2. Jean-Pierre Cling & François Meunier, 1986. "La désinflation en France : le point de vue de l'économètre," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(6), pages 1093-1125.
    3. Tavéra, Christophe, 1988. "Prix industriels et prix alimentaires dans la relation prix-salaires," Cahiers d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales (CESR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 9.
    4. Pierre Morin, 1988. "A propos de « Dynamique des prix industriels en France » de D. Encaoua et P. Michel," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(6), pages 1249-1261.

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