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L'offre et la demande de monnaie dans la France de l'entre-deux-guerres (1920-1939)

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  • Christian Saint-Etienne

Abstract

[eng] Supply and demand of money in France . In the interwar period (1920-1939). Christian Saint-Etienne. We build the monthly supply of money series from January 1920 to July 1939 and we estimate a demand for money function with partial adjustment and rational expectation of inflation. The rational expectation turns ont to be an autoregressive process in the monthly estimation. We give our quarterly series in the Appendix. Expected inflation is found to have a very strong impact on the per capita demand for real money balances. [fre] Nous reconstituons l'offre mensuelle de monnaie de janvier 1920 à juillet 1939, puis nous estimons une fonction de demande de monnaie avec ajustement partiel et anticipation rationnelle d'inflation. L'anticipation rationnelle se révèle être en pratique, dans l'estimation mensuelle, un processus autorégressif. Nous donnons en annexe nos séries trimestrielles.. Le principal résultat réside dans la mise à jour d'un effet très élevé de l'inflation (ou déflation) anticipée sur la demande d'encaisses réelles par tête.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Saint-Etienne, 1983. "L'offre et la demande de monnaie dans la France de l'entre-deux-guerres (1920-1939)," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(2), pages 344-367.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1983_num_34_2_408715
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1983.408715
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1983.408715
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    1. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1980. "A pitfall in estimation of models with rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 433-435, July.
    2. Jacques Mélitz, 1973. "La demande de monnaie en France : tentative d'explication," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 11(1), pages 21-48.
    3. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    4. Leiderman, Leonardo, 1980. "Macroeconometric testing of the rational expectations and structural neutrality hypotheses for the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 69-82, January.
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