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Les prélèvements pétroliers et les déséquilibres macroéconomiques mondiaux : une analyse en terme de transferts

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  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy

Abstract

[fre] Cet article cherche à préciser, dans le cadre de la théorie des transferts, l'ampleur probable des effets du premier choc pétrolier sur l'activité économique mondiale, en distinguant l'OCDE, les PVD et l'OPEP. Il apparaît que les effets keynésiens du choc pétrolier ont sans doute joué un rôle décisif dans la récession qui a débuté en 1974 et s'est poursuivie en 1975. Par contre, la relative faiblesse de la croissance de 1975 à 1978 semble relever d'explications plus classiques que keynésiennes.. [ . [eng] Oil payments and the world macroeconomic . Disequilibria : a transfer theory analysis. Jean-Claude Berthélemy. Based on the transfer theory, this article discusses the size of the effects the first oil shock could have had on the economic activity, the world economy being disagregated in OECD, LDCs and OPEC. It seems that the keynesian effects of this shock played a major part in the 1974-1975 recession. However, the relatively low performances of the 1975-1978 years requires some classical, rather than keynesian, explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Claude Berthélemy, 1982. "Les prélèvements pétroliers et les déséquilibres macroéconomiques mondiaux : une analyse en terme de transferts," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 695-723.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1982_num_33_4_408676
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1982.408676
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1982.408676
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1979. "Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 269-332.
    2. Marc Miles & Marion Stewart, 1980. "The effects of risk and return on the currency composition of money demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(4), pages 613-626, December.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    4. Patrick Artus & Michèle Debonneuil, 1979. "Les conséquences d'un pétrole plus cher," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 115(1), pages 21-26.
    5. Miles, Marc A, 1978. "Currency Substitution, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Monetary Independence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 428-436, June.
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