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Revenus, marchés et anticipations : la dynamique de l'offre agricole

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  • Jean-Marc Boussard

Abstract

[eng] Markets, incomes, expectations : agricultural supply dynamics . In order to justify agricultural income support, current rhetoric insists on equity considerations. Yet, one does not see any reason to be more equitable with respect to farmers than to any other category. By contrast, protecting consumers against large, market generated price fluctuations stands as a solid ground to found farm subsidies legitimacy. In order to bring support to this idea, it is shown that the combined action of uncertainty, factor fixity, absence of economies of scale, and demand rigidity logically leads free agricultural markets toward chaotic regimes (in the technical, mathematical meaning of the word), with non periodical, self generated fluctuations. No exogenous perturbations, such as climatic accidents or exchange market hazards are necessary for such scenarii to occur. [fre] Dans le discours politique habituel, le soutien au revenu des agriculteurs est justifié par un souci d'équité. Pourtant, il n'y a aucune raison d'être plus équitable envers les agriculteurs qu'envers aucune autre catégorie sociale. En revanche, il existe des spécificités des marchés agricoles qui justifient le soutien aux agriculteurs en vue de protéger le consommateur des fluctuations de prix excessives engendrées par la dynamique spontanée du secteur. On montre en particulier que le jeu combiné de l'incertitude, des facteurs fixes, de l'absence d'économies d'échelles, et de la rigidité de la demande conduit logiquement un marché agricole libre à évoluer vers un régime chaotique, au sens technique du mot en mathématiques, c'est-à-dire un régime de fluctuations non périodiques auto-entretenues et imprédictibles, et cela, sans qu'il soit nécessaire de faire intervenir les "aléas climatiques", ou d'autres perturbations exogènes.

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  • Jean-Marc Boussard, 1994. "Revenus, marchés et anticipations : la dynamique de l'offre agricole," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 220(1), pages 61-68.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1994_num_220_1_4611
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1994.4611
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1994.4611
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    1. Kako Nubukpo & Pierre Janin, 2005. "Incertitudes et « jeux céréaliers » en Afrique de l'Ouest : quels enseignements politiques ?," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(184), pages 811-835.
    2. Philippe Boyer, 1997. "Evaluation of costs and benefits of agricultural policies. Focuns about economic approaches [L’ÉVALUATION DES COÛTS ET AVANTAGES DES POLITIQUES AGRICOLES Le point sur quelques approches économiques," Post-Print hal-02966428, HAL.
    3. Philippe Boyer, 1996. "What is given by economics to common agricultural policy reform understanding ? [Qu’Apporte La Théorie Économique À La Compréhension De La Réforme De La Politique Agricole Commune ?]," Post-Print hal-02966427, HAL.

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