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Le yuan et le G20

Author

Listed:
  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Amina Lahrèche-Révil
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

[fre] Dans cet article, les auteurs cherchent à déterminer la marge d’appréciation du yuan, et à analyser les conséquences qu’aurait, pour la parité euro-dollar, un réajustement du taux de change du yuan et des monnaies asiatiques. Tout d’abord, cet article rappelle les origines du régime de change fixe en Chine, dont le choix est indissociable de la stratégie de développement chinoise, fondée sur une ouverture privilégiant les exportations. Puis, il propose deux mesures alternatives du taux de change d’équilibre du yuan, l’une fondée sur l’hypothèse que le yuan doit se comporter comme l’ensemble des monnaies des pays du G20, l’autre fondée sur l’hypothèse que les monnaies du G20 ont chacune une dynamique d’ajustement propre. Enfin, les auteurs étudient l’impact qu’aurait un réajustement du yuan et des autres monnaies asiatiques sur les déséquilibres mondiaux, mesurés par les distorsions de change subies par ces pays. Différents scénarios permettent de quantifier les conséquences d’une éventuelle coopération monétaire en Asie. . Classification JEL : F31, F36, O24, O53 [eng] The Yuan and the G20 . In this article, authors try to calculate the Yuan’s rise margin and to analyse the impacts of an exchange rate adjustment of Yuan and other Asian currency on the Euro-Dollar’s parity. First, this article describes the origins of the fixed exchange rate in China. This choice is an integral part of the Chinese development strategy which is based on exports incentives. This article shows 2 alternative assessments of the Yuan’s equilibrium exchange rate. The first assumption supposes that the Yuan changes as the all G20 currencies. The second assumption supposes that each G20 currency has its own adjustment’s dynamic. At last, the authors study the impact of a Yuan’s and other Asian currencies’ realignment on the international balances measured by the exchange imbalances suffered by these countries. Some scenarios allow to assume consequences of an Asian monetary co-operation. . JEL classification : F31, F36, O24, O53

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Le yuan et le G20," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(4), pages 127-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2004_num_77_4_4177
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2004.4177
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2004.4177
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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