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World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates

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  • Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès
  • Lahrèche-Révil, Amina
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

This paper proposes a systematic analysis of the problem of world consistency when deriving equilibrium exchange rates. World inconsistency can arise for two reasons. First, real effective misalignments of currencies out of the considered sample are implicitly assumed to be the mirror image of those of the currencies under review. Second, only NÂ -Â 1 independent bilateral equilibrium exchange rates can be derived from a set of N effective rates. Here we measure the extent of these two problems by estimating equilibrium exchange rates for 15 countries of the G20 in effective as well as bilateral terms and by varying the assumptions concerning the rest of the world (RoW) and the numeraire currency. Our results show that the way the rest of the world is tackled has a major impact on the calculation of effective misalignments and especially bilateral misalignments.

Suggested Citation

  • Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:25:y:2011:i:2:p:12-32
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    4. Agnès Bénassy‐Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "Robust Estimations Of Equilibrium Exchange Rates Within The G20: A Panel Beer Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(5), pages 608-633, November.
    5. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    6. Claire Giordano, 2023. "Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1329-1384, September.
    7. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    8. Audrey Allegret, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," Working Papers hal-04140932, HAL.
    9. Claudiu T Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau, 2011. "Estimation of equilibrium exchange rate in CEECs: a rolling window approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1212-1222.
    10. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    11. Carton, Benjamin & Hervé, Karine, 2012. "Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1214.
    12. Baak, SaangJoon, 2012. "Measuring misalignments in the Korean exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 227-234.
    13. Zhibai Zhang & Xinyue Zou, 2013. "The Ratio Model and its Application: A Revisit," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(6), pages 1-4.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Shi He, 2019. "Truths and Myths About RMB Misalignment: A Meta-analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(3), pages 464-492, September.
    15. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    16. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned: Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned : Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2018. "Currency Misalignments in the BRIICS Countries: Fixed Vs. Floating Exchange Rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 1123-1151, November.
    19. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    20. Luo, Ji & Williams, Gary W., 2015. "The Impacts of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy on World Soybean and Products Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205075, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Laurent, Sébastien & Lecourt, Christelle, 2009. "Does transparency in central bank intervention policy bring noise to the FX market?: The case of the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 94-111, February.
    22. Brankica Pažun & Zlatko Langović & Ana Langovic Milićević, 2016. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Assessment of the Serbian Dinar: The MB approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-87, March.
    23. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "Long‐run determinants and misalignments of the real effective exchange rate in the EU," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 649-672, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium exchange rates BEER approach World consistency;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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