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Un exercice de simulation : l'économie française en 1986 sans la baisse du dollar ni celle du prix du pétrole

Author

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  • Laurence Bloch
  • Annette Kadjar
  • Pierre Ralle

Abstract

[fre] On a chiffré à l'aide du modèle METRIC les effets macroéconomiques d'une stabilisation, à leur niveau du quatrième trimestre de 1985, de la parité du dollar par rapport aux différentes monnaies et du prix du baril de pétrole brut importé en dollars. Ces effets apparaissent relativement faibles, en comparaison de l'ampleur du contre-choc pétrolier. Par rapport aux moyennes annuelles observées en 1986, la croissance du PIB marchand aurait été inférieure de seulement 0,4 point, celle de la consommation des ménages de 0,7 point. Entre 1985 et 1986, le solde industriel se serait dégradé de 34 milliards de F au lieu des 50 observés. [eng] An exercise of simulation : the French economy not taking into account neither the drop of the dollar, nor the drop of the price of oil - The macroeconomic effects of a stabilisation at their 1985 last quarter level of the equivalence of the dollar with regard to the various currencies, and of the price of the oil barrel imported in dollars have been estimated with the Metric model. These effects are relatively weak compared to the extent of the shock consequences. In comparison with the annual averages observed in 1986, the growth of the commercial Gross National Product has only been 0,4 point inferior, and the one of the household expenditure 0,7 inferior. Between 1985 and 1 986, the industrial balance lowed to 34 billion francs, instead of the 50 billion observed before. [spa] Un ejercicio de simulación : la economia francesa en 1986 sin la baja del dólar ni la del precio del petróleo - Por intermedio del modelo METRIC se evaluaron los efectos macroeconómicos de una estabilización, en el nivel correspondiente al cuarto trimestre de 1985, de la paridad del dólar con respecto a las diferentes monedas y del precio en dólares del barril de petrôleo bruto importado. Taies efectos son relativamente reducidos en comparación con la amplitud del contra choque petrolero. Con relación a los promedios registrados en 1 986, el crecimiento del PIB comercial habria sido inferior solo en 0,4 puntos y el del consumo de los hogares en 0,7 puntos. Entre 1985 y 1986 el saldo industrial habria sufrido un deterioro de 34 mil millones de francos en lugar de los 50 mil registrados.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Bloch & Annette Kadjar & Pierre Ralle, 1987. "Un exercice de simulation : l'économie française en 1986 sans la baisse du dollar ni celle du prix du pétrole," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 201(1), pages 15-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1987_num_201_1_5102
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1987.5102
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1987.5102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick Artus & Michèle Debonneuil, 1979. "Les conséquences d'un pétrole plus cher," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 115(1), pages 21-26.
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