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Biais cognitifs et choix technologiques : une analyse des priorités des experts français

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  • Patrick Rondé
  • Caroline Hussler

Abstract

[eng] Amid the current proliferation of socio-technical controversies, the judgment of experts and its representativeness have become core issues. Our article seeks to analyze the behavior of French experts in order to test the neutrality of their technological choices. To address this question, we have drawn on a technology outlook survey conducted in France, in which 1,200 experts were asked to rate the importance of 1,150 technological options for the future. We performed empirical tests to determine whether the respondents’ choices depended on their level of expertise. We found that the designated research priorities matched the experts’ centers of interest. This suggests that the experts’ opinions suffer from biases that are relatively incompatible with the objectivity criteria used to justify the selection of the sample. [fre] À l’heure où les controverses socio-techniques se multiplient, le jugement des experts et sa représentativité sont au coeur des débats. Notre papier cherche à analyser les comportements d’experts français, afin de tester si leurs choix technologiques sont neutres. Pour répondre à cette question, nous mobilisons une enquête de prospective technologique menée en France et recueillant l’avis de 1200 experts sur l’importance à donner à 1150 options technologiques d’avenir . Nous testons empiriquement si les choix technologiques des experts dépendent du niveau d’expertise de ces derniers. Nous trouvons que les priorités de recherche retenues correspondent aux centres d’intérêt des experts interrogés, ce qui suggère que l’avis formulé par les experts soufre de biais peu compatibles avec l’idée d’objectivité qui motive leur désignation.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Rondé & Caroline Hussler, 2006. "Biais cognitifs et choix technologiques : une analyse des priorités des experts français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 175(4), pages 65-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2006_num_175_4_7563
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2006.7563
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2006.7563
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