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Analyse quantitative de la réversibilité du stockage des déchets nucléaires : valorisation des déchets

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  • Christian Gollier
  • Jean-Guy Devezeaux de Lavergne

Abstract

[eng] Quantitative Analysis of the Reversibility of Nuclear Waste Storage : Waste Reutilisation . by Jean-Guy Devezeaux and Christian Gollier . The reversibility of nuclear waste storage can be justified on various economic grounds, including the eventuality that future generations may wish to recover this waste in order to reutilise it. Real options theory is used to cost this option. By including the value of this option in the cost/ benefit analysis, it is possible to determine what present generations should spend to organise this reversibility. Taking current values of the materials contained in the waste, and taking into account the low growth trend of such values, we show that the reversibility value of a waste storage site is derisory. Key-words : nuclearwaste, reversibility value, real option. JEL Classification : . [fre] La réversibilité du stockage des déchets nucléaires peut se justifier par différents arguments économiques, dont celui de l''éventualité d''un désir des générations futures de récupérer ces déchets pour les valoriser. On utilise la théorie des options réelles pour estimer la valeur de cette option. En introduisant cette valeur d''option dans l''analyse coût-bénéfice, on est en situation de pouvoir déterminer ce que les générations actuelles devraient dépenser pour organiser cette réversibilité. Au niveau actuel des valeurs des matières contenues dans les déchets, et compte tenu du faible trend de croissance de ces valeurs, nous montrons que la valeur de réversibilité du site de stockage des déchets est dérisoire. Mots-clés : déchets nucléaires, valeur de réversibilité, option réelle. Classification JEL :

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier & Jean-Guy Devezeaux de Lavergne, 2001. "Analyse quantitative de la réversibilité du stockage des déchets nucléaires : valorisation des déchets," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 149(3), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_149_3_6288
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6288
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6288
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth J. Arrow & Anthony C. Fisher, 1974. "Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 4, pages 76-84, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Louberge, Henri & Villeneuve, Stephane & Chesney, Marc, 2002. "Long-term risk management of nuclear waste: a real options approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 157-180, November.
    4. Henry, Claude, 1974. "Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty: The "Irreversibility Effect."," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1006-1012, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Ayong Le Kama & Mouez Fodha, 2009. "Stockage des déchets radioactifs et incertitude," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 39-52.
    2. Christian Gollier, 2005. "Quel taux d actualisation pour quel avenir ?," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 19(4), pages 59-81.
    3. Veronique Thireau, 2014. "Quel traitement des déchets par l'analyse économique ?," Post-Print hal-01221380, HAL.

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