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La réduction des prélèvements sur les entreprises

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  • Bernard Ullmo

Abstract

[eng] The reduction of corporate tax and social security contributions, . by Bernard Ullmo.. . Beyond the sharp controversies in terms of economic doctrine relative to the reduction of corporate taxes and social security contributions, this paper will seek to test the issue by resting its argumentation on the findings of macroeconometric models and of theoretical and empirical surveys.. . We intended to test two current assumptions:. that, according to the fixed-prices temporary equilibrium theory, firms which operate under a "classical régime" tend to invest all of the transfer payments made to them, whereas firms under a Keynesian regime tend to employ such transfer payments in other ways; . that a large proportion of French firms find themselves currently operating under a "classical régime", owing to the low profit-rate that limits their growth.. . Yet, none of the experimental methods used in this research, have clearly demonstrated the existence of such a large proportion of firms following the pattern set by the classical regime. Furthermore, the overall efficiency of a policy of reduction of corporate taxes and social security contributions is not to be found in the circuits by which public transfer payments are turned into productive investments. But other efficient though indirect mechanisms should not be excluded, the policy appears to produce its most favourable results whenever the sharpest drops in domestic prices are obtained, and the repercussion on export prices and on the volume of imports and exports maximized. The model Metric, unlike Dms and Copain. substantiates the favourable pattern of behaviour.. . In summary, there is some uncertainty as to the regimes, and by way of consequence, the investment behaviours, the wage-price cycles and the sub-model related to foreign-trade. Therefore, there could be no decisive evidence in support of the desirability of a reduction of corporate taxes and social security contributions. [fre] La réduction des prélèvements sur les entreprises, par Bernard Ullmo.. . Alors que les oppositions doctrinales relatives à la baisse des prélèvements sur les entreprises sont très vives, on cherchera à fonder l'argumentation présentée ici sur l'utilisation conjointe de modèles macroéconométriques, de travaux théoriques et d'études empiriques. Les deux idées de départ étaient que . les entreprises en «régime classique» —selon la théorie des équilibres à prix fixe— investissaient l'intégralité des transferts publics dont elles bénéficiaient, alors que celles en «régime keynésien» en faisaient d autres usages ;. . Dans une très forte proportion, les entreprises françaises étaient actuellement dans ce premier régime par suite d'une insuffisance de profits qui limitait leur croissance.. . Cependant, les méthodes encore expérimentales mises en œuvre, ne permettent pas de conclure à l'existence d'un pourcentage important d'entreprises dans le premier régime : l'efficacité générale de la politique économique étudiée ne passe donc pas par la voie qui transforme directement le transfert public en voie qui transforme directement le transfert public en investissement productif. Mais d'autres mécanismes, efficients quoiqu'indirects, ne sont pas exclus les résultats sont d autant plus favorables que la baisse des prix intérieurs est plus importante et que la répercussion sur le prix des exportations et des importations en volume est élevée. Au contraire de Dms et de Copain, le modèle Métric correspond à ce cas heureux.. . En résumé, il y a incertitude sur les régimes et, par conséquent, sur les comportements d'investissement, sur le cycle prix-salaires et sur le sous-modèle extérieur, c'est-à-dire sur trois domaines essentiels de la macroéconomie, ce qui interdit de donner une réponse ferme à l'intérêt actuel d'une baisse des prélèvements sur les entreprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Ullmo, 1986. "La réduction des prélèvements sur les entreprises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 29-52.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1986_num_72_1_4913
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1986.4913
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1986.4913
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Artus, Patrick & Laroque, Guy & Michel, Gilles, 1984. "Estimation of a Quarterly Macroeconomic Model with Quantity Rationing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1387-1414, November.
    2. Patrick Artus & Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1980. "Investissement, emploi et fiscalité," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 115-127.
    3. Robert Boyer & Jean-Pascal Benassy & Rosa-Maria Gelpi, 1979. "Régulation des économies capitalistes et inflation," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 30(3), pages 397-441.
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