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Un modèle économétrique de déséquilibre à deux secteurs et son apport à l'analyse des politiques économiques

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  • Patrick Artus
  • Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi
  • Jean-Pierre Laffargue

Abstract

[eng] A Disequilibrium Macroeconometric Model of the French Economy with two Sectors and Endogenous Investment Patrick Artus, Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, Jean-Pierre Laffargue This paper presents a two sector, (tradable and non tradable) disequilibrium model, with endogenized investment, for France. The estimation results confirm those previously obtained both by aggregated disequilibrium models where keynesian unemployment prevailed after the second oil shock, as well as by the sectoral model or estimations of tradable goods export and import functions, when classical unemployment prevailed. Tradable sector production is constrained by profitable production capacity (classical unemployment) and the non tradable production sector (about two thirds of GDP) is limited by the weakness of demand. The simulations presented in the last part of the paper show how a two sector disequilibrium model with endogenized investment can improve political economic analysis. [fre] Cet article présente l'estimation, pour l'économie française, d'un modèle de déséquilibre distinguant le secteur exposé à la concurrence internationale et le secteur abrité, ainsi que son utilisation pour l'étude de politiques économiques. Les résultats de l'estimation réconcilient ceux obtenus antérieurement avec des modèles agrégés, qui concluaient à la prédominance du chômage keynésien depuis le deuxième choc pétrolier et les travaux sectoriels portant sur les exportations de produits manufacturés qui mettaient au contraire en évidence les contraintes résultant d'une insuffisance des capacités de production rentables (chômage classique). La production du secteur industriel a été principalement limitée par les capacités de production rentables ; celle du secteur abrité, qui représente les deux tiers du PIB, par l'insuffisance de la demande. Les simulations présentées dans la dernière partie de l'article montrent l'enrichissement que peut apporter un modèle de déséquilibre à deux secteurs et investissement endogène à l'étude des politiques économiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Artus & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1987. "Un modèle économétrique de déséquilibre à deux secteurs et son apport à l'analyse des politiques économiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 21(1), pages 211-236.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1987_num_21_1_1112
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1987.1112
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1987.1112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Artus, Patrick & Laroque, Guy & Michel, Gilles, 1984. "Estimation of a Quarterly Macroeconomic Model with Quantity Rationing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1387-1414, November.
    2. Patrick Artus, 1986. "Comment fonctionne le marché des exportations ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 2, pages 3-36.
    3. Laffargue, Jean-pierre, 1986. "Taux de salaire, investissement et emploi dans une économie semi-ouverte," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8615, CEPREMAP.
    4. repec:adr:anecst:y:1986:i:2:p:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Y. Younes, 1975. "On the Role of Money in the Process of Exchange and the Existence of a Non-Walrasian Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(4), pages 489-501.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Amalric & Alain Gubian & Pierre-Alain Muet, 1990. "Modèles de déséquilibre et échanges extérieurs : deux approches appliquées au secteur industriel français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(3), pages 129-140.
    2. Patrick Artus & Éric Bleuze, 1990. "Déficit du commerce industriel de la France et capacités de production : un examen sectoriel," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 228(1), pages 19-28.

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