IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpol/v2024y2024i4id1424p626-652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the Relationship Between Tourism Index Return and Financial, Macroeconomic and Tourism Industry Development Indicators: An Application of MS-VAR Models

Author

Listed:
  • Yesim Helhel
  • Eray Akgun

Abstract

The tourism industry has flourished considerably over the years in Turkey and has competed with top international destinations. This study aims to identify the structural breaks specific to Turkey with a developing capital market and examine the causality relationship between tourism index return and financial, macroeconomic and tourism industry development indicators from January 2005 to February 2022. The MS-VAR econometric model based on two regimes detects nonlinear and asymmetrical structures in the dataset. Our findings indicate local effects of shocks on financial and macroeconomic indicators during regime transition periods. Furthermore, there are unidirectional causality relationships between real exchange rate, tourism index returns and the value of trading volume, but no relationship is found between tourism index return and other indicators, namely, bank loans granted to the tourism industry and tourist arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Yesim Helhel & Eray Akgun, 2024. "Examining the Relationship Between Tourism Index Return and Financial, Macroeconomic and Tourism Industry Development Indicators: An Application of MS-VAR Models," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(4), pages 626-652.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:4:id:1424:p:626-652
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1424
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1424.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://polek.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.polek.1424.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.polek.1424?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    2. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessia Naccarato & Andrea Pierini & Giovanna Ferraro, 2021. "Markowitz portfolio optimization through pairs trading cointegrated strategy in long-term investment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 81-99, April.
    2. Naushad Alam, 2017. "Analysis of the impact of select macroeconomic variables on the Indian Stock Market: A heteroscedastic cointegration approach," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(1), pages 119-127, March.
    3. Qifa Xu & Lu Chen & Cuixia Jiang & Yezheng Liu, 2022. "Forecasting expected shortfall and value at risk with a joint elicitable mixed data sampling model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 407-421, April.
    4. Zhong, Meirui & Zhang, Rui & Ren, Xiaohang, 2023. "The time-varying effects of liquidity and market efficiency of the European Union carbon market: Evidence from the TVP-SVAR-SV approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    8. Tugce Karatas & Ali Hirsa, 2021. "Two-Stage Sector Rotation Methodology Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques," Papers 2108.02838, arXiv.org.
    9. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Farooq, Muhammad & Khan, Kamran, 2014. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohd Yahya Mohd Hussin & Fidlizan Muhammad & Azila Abdul Razak Fatimah Salwa Abdul Hadi & Pei-Tha Gan, 2017. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables in the Islamic Real Estate Investment Trusts (I-REIT) Market in Malaysia," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(4), pages 911-926, April.
    11. Alok Kumar Mishra, 2004. "Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market in India: Are they Related?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 5(2), pages 209-232, September.
    12. Molefhi, Koketso, 2021. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Capital Market Development in Botswana’s Economy," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(2), April.
    13. Prabhas Kumar Rath, 2023. "Nexus Between Indian Financial Markets and Macro-economic Shocks: A VAR Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 131-164, March.
    14. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    15. Forget M Kapingura, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Liquidity of the Bond Market in Africa: Case Study of South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 7(3), pages 88-103.
    16. Kuwornu, John K.M., 2012. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(2), pages 1-12, June.
    17. Martin Širůček, 2012. "Effect of money supply on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 399-408.
    18. Miras, Hassan & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock returns and macroeconomic factors in an emerging economy: Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 101229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Eldomiaty, Tarek & Saeed, Yasmeen & Hammam, Rasha & AboulSoud, Salma, 2020. "The associations between stock prices, inflation rates, interest rates are still persistent: Empirical evidence from stock duration model," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 149-161.
    20. Tania Morris & Jules Comeau, 2020. "Portfolio creation using artificial neural networks and classification probabilities: a Canadian study," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(2), pages 133-163, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causality; financial development; macroeconomy; MS-VAR; Toda-; Yamamoto; tourism index return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2024:y:2024:i:4:id:1424:p:626-652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.