IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/apfinm/v30y2023i1d10.1007_s10690-022-09372-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nexus Between Indian Financial Markets and Macro-economic Shocks: A VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Prabhas Kumar Rath

    (Securities and Exchange Board of India)

Abstract

This paper studies the nexus between asset returns volatility in six major segments of Indian financial markets (viz. money, equity, gsec, forex, equity and banking stocks) and macro-economic shocks (viz. GDP, Inflation, Current Account Deficit, market capitalisation to GDP ratio, US Treasury Yield and Foreign Portfolio Investment). The period of study is from April 2002 to March 2021, a period covering four instances of significant economic and financial market stress. Findings of the study are generally aligned to economic theory, except for the case of gsec market. Besides, macro-variables were found to be exerting greater impact when they are in their weaker/unstable state and the behaviour of US treasury yield and FPI flows were found be more significant factors during stress periods and recovery immediately thereafter. Therefore, there is a need to focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability as a policy to foster financial market stability. Besides, there is a need to monitor a customized and dynamic list of macroeconomic variables in respect of each of the financial market segments to decide on the timing, type and quantum of policy and regulatory responses from time to time. This study contributed towards financial markets public policy, particularly during periods of uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Prabhas Kumar Rath, 2023. "Nexus Between Indian Financial Markets and Macro-economic Shocks: A VAR Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 131-164, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:30:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-022-09372-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-022-09372-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-022-09372-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10690-022-09372-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
    3. Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Nelson Mark & Donald J. Mathieson, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 688-724, December.
    4. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    5. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1971. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 30-55, Jan.-Feb..
    7. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    8. Helinä Laakkonen, 2007. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    9. Sanjay Ramchander & Marc Simpson & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2003. "The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 85-101, March.
    10. Paul, Satya & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2003. "Macroeconomic Factors and Bank and Finance Stock Prices: The Australian Experience," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 23-30, March.
    11. Gemmill, Gordon & Keswani, Aneel, 2011. "Downside risk and the size of credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2021-2036, August.
    12. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility,World-Wide," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0711, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    13. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2004. "Competition and Financial Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 453-480, June.
    14. Ioana Alexopoulou & Irina Bunda & Annalisa Ferrando, 2010. "Determinants of Government Bond Spreads in New EU Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 5-37, September.
    15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    16. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
    17. Wei Huang & K. K. Lai & Y. Nakamori & Shouyang Wang, 2004. "Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates With Artificial Neural Networks: A Review," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 145-165.
    18. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    19. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    20. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    21. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    22. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    23. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
    24. Darrat, Ali F. & Mukherjee, Tarun K., 1986. "The behavior of the stock market in a developing economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(2-3), pages 273-278.
    25. Pasiouras, Fotios & Kosmidou, Kyriaki, 2007. "Factors influencing the profitability of domestic and foreign commercial banks in the European Union," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 222-237, June.
    26. Elisa Menicucci & Guido Paolucci, 2016. "The determinants of bank profitability: empirical evidence from European banking sector," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 86-115, July.
    27. de Goeij, Peter & Marquering, Wessel, 2006. "Macroeconomic announcements and asymmetric volatility in bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2659-2680, October.
    28. Paul Alagidede & Muazu Ibrahim, 2017. "On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 169-193, April.
    29. Song l KAK LL ACARAVCI & Ahmet Ertugrul ALIM, 2013. "Turkish Banking Sector's Profitability Factors," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 27-41.
    30. Elisa Menicucci & Guido Paolucci, 2016. "The determinants of bank profitability: empirical evidence from European banking sector," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 86-115, July.
    31. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    32. Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Bharath, Sreedhar T., 2013. "Liquidity risk of corporate bond returns: conditional approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 358-386.
    33. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    34. Morelli, David, 2002. "The relationship between conditional stock market volatility and conditional macroeconomic volatility: Empirical evidence based on UK data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-110.
    35. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    36. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Eissa A. Al-Homaidi & Mosab I. Tabash & Najib H. S. Farhan & Faozi A. Almaqtari, 2018. "Bank-specific and macro-economic determinants of profitability of Indian commercial banks: A panel data approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1548072-154, January.
    38. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
    39. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    40. Karthika S. Nair & M. Thenmozhi, 2012. "Macroeconomic factors and conditional bond volatility: evidence from emerging and developed bond markets," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 326-345.
    41. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
    42. Lin, Hai & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2011. "Liquidity risk and expected corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 628-650, March.
    43. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    44. McQueen, Grant & Roley, V Vance, 1993. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 683-707.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Subhash Karmakar & Gautam Bandyopadhyay & Jayanta Nath Mukhopadhyay, 2024. "Systemic Risk in Indian Financial Institutions: A Probabilistic Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 579-656, September.
    2. Jaheera Thasleema Abdul Lathief & Sunitha Chelliah Kumaravel & Regina Velnadar & Ravi Varma Vijayan & Satyanarayana Parayitam, 2024. "Quantifying Risk in Investment Decision-Making," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    3. Dick-Nielsen, Jens & Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2012. "Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(3), pages 471-492.
    4. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    5. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    6. Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2014. "The determinants of credit spreads changes in global shipping bonds," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 55-75.
    7. Helwege, Jean & Huang, Jing-Zhi & Wang, Yuan, 2014. "Liquidity effects in corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 105-116.
    8. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. Xuanjuan Chen & Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhenzhen Sun & Tong Yao & Tong Yu, 2020. "Liquidity Premium in the Eye of the Beholder: An Analysis of the Clientele Effect in the Corporate Bond Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 932-957, February.
    11. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh‐Lin Wu, 2018. "Identifying Exchange Rate Common Factors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2193-2218, November.
    13. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    14. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    15. William A. Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2011. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 5, pages 151-166, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    17. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
    18. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
    19. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One," NBER Working Papers 10267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:30:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-022-09372-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.