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Vliv trhu mezistatků na úspěšnost prognóz ekonomické aktivity
[Influence of the Intermediate Goods Market on the Success of Economic Activity Forecasts]

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  • Václav Rybáček

Abstract

Predictions of economic activity are sine qua non of economic policy. Nevertheless, predictions are characterised by the high level of inaccuracy; the main aim of the paper is to provide a potential theoretical explanation of frequent failures by focusing on the refl ection of real market proces in forecasting apparatus. It is argued that the role of intermediate products is underestimated in the considerations of future development of economic activity, even if these has presumably higher relevance to the level of economic activity in the future. Mutual relation between expenditures on consumption and production expense is discussed and verifi ed by use of econometric tools. It is found that even if there is long-term relation between consumption and production expenditures, from the short-term perspective, actual consumption does not have statistically signifi cant impact on future decisions of producers.

Suggested Citation

  • Václav Rybáček, 2015. "Vliv trhu mezistatků na úspěšnost prognóz ekonomické aktivity [Influence of the Intermediate Goods Market on the Success of Economic Activity Forecasts]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(3), pages 331-346.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2015:y:2015:i:3:id:1006:p:331-346
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.1006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; forecasting; economic activity; derived demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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