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Empirical Safety Thresholds for Liquidity and Indebtedness Ratios on the Polish Capital Market

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  • Jacek Welc

Abstract

One of the elements of company's evaluation is ratio analysis. It includes computation of bankruptcy risk metrics. There are multiple such measures, of which two seem to be quite universal and commonly applied. These are current ratio and indebtedness ratio. In this study, the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions based on these two ratios is evaluated within a sample of data from the Polish market. Also, the safety thresholds (meant as values at which the probability of bankruptcy exceeds fifty percent) are estimated. The study is based on a sample of 84 companies, in which case a bankruptcy filing was announced in a period between the beginning of 2009 and the end of the first half of 2015. This sample of bankrupt firms is compared to the counter-sample of companies in which case no any bankruptcy filing occurred. The statistical analysis has confirmed the usefulness of both ratios. Even though the sample covers wide variety of businesses, the logit models with only one ratio used as an explanatory variable are capable of identifying bankrupt firms in about 70-73% of cases. Our research has also shown that the estimated safety thresholds lie near the typically assumed "rules of thumb".

Suggested Citation

  • Jacek Welc, 2016. "Empirical Safety Thresholds for Liquidity and Indebtedness Ratios on the Polish Capital Market," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 39-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlefa:v:2016:y:2016:i:3:id:161:p:39-52
    DOI: 10.18267/j.efaj.161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    3. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    4. Chris Charalambous & Andreas Charitou & Froso Kaourou, 2000. "Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Network Models: Application in Bankruptcy Prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 99(1), pages 403-425, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Madalina Ecaterina Popescu & Victor Dragotă, 2018. "What Do Post-Communist Countries Have in Common When Predicting Financial Distress?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 637-653.
    2. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:664:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bankruptcy prediction; Current ratio; Financial liquidity; Fundamental analysis; Indebtedness ratio; Ratio analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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