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Quantitative Forecast of Demand for Life Insurance in CR in 2015-2018: Macroeconomic Growth versus Industry Restructuring
[Kvantitativní prognóza poptávky po životním pojištění v ČR v letech 2015-2018: makroekonomický růst versus odvětvová restrukturalizace]

Author

Listed:
  • Jiří Šindelář

Abstract

The article deals with quantitative forecast of demand for life insurance in Czech Rep. in years 2015-2018. In order to derive the forecast, causal model created on behalf of OECD member states, including macroeconomic, demographic as well as social variables was utilized. As an equivalent for the demand itself, density of life insurance in population was employed. The results show that in current period of economic growth, the consumption of life insurance should increase as well; that is, however, in sharp contrast with real development in the first half-year of 2015. This contradiction is probably a consequence of changes in insurance distribution, which recently culminated with public discussion on regulation of intermediaries´ commissions. Subsequent alternative scenario of commission cap was modelled as well, with the results indicating fundamental supply-demand implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Šindelář, 2016. "Quantitative Forecast of Demand for Life Insurance in CR in 2015-2018: Macroeconomic Growth versus Industry Restructuring [Kvantitativní prognóza poptávky po životním pojištění v ČR v letech 2015-2," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(1), pages 5-23.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2016:y:2016:i:1:id:465:p:5-23
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.465
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Donghui Li & Fariborz Moshirian & Pascal Nguyen & Timothy Wee, 2007. "The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(3), pages 637-652, September.
    2. Rudolf Enz, 2000. "The S-Curve Relation Between Per-Capita Income and Insurance Penetration," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 25(3), pages 396-406, July.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Webb, Ian, 2002. "Determinants of life insurance consumption across countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2792, The World Bank.
    4. Benjamin Lorent, 2010. "The Link between Insurance and Banking Sectors: An International Cross-Section Analysis of Life Insurance Demand," Working Papers CEB 10-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life insurance; Forecast; Life insurance density; Demand; Životní pojištění; Prognóza; Hustota životního pojištění; Poptávka;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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