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Sensitivity analysis of disease-information coupling propagation dynamics model parameters

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  • Yang Yang
  • Haiyan Liu

Abstract

The disease-information coupling propagation dynamics model is a widely used model for studying the spread of infectious diseases in society, but the parameter settings and sensitivity are often overlooked, which leads to enlarged errors in the results. Exploring the influencing factors of the disease-information coupling propagation dynamics model and identifying the key parameters of the model will help us better understand its coupling mechanism and make accurate recommendations for controlling the spread of disease. In this paper, Sobol global sensitivity analysis algorithm is adopted to conduct global sensitivity analysis on 6 input parameters (different cross regional jump probabilities, information dissemination rate, information recovery rate, epidemic transmission rate, epidemic recovery rate, and the probability of taking preventive actions) of the disease-information coupling model with the same interaction radius and heterogeneous interaction radius. The results show that: (1) In the coupling model with the same interaction radius, the parameters that have the most obvious influence on the peak density of nodes in state AI and the information dissemination scale of the information are the information dissemination rate βI and the information recovery rate μI. In the coupling model of heterogeneous interaction radius, the parameters that have the most obvious impact on the peak density of nodes in the AI state of the information layer are: information spread rate βI, disease recovery rate μE, and the parameter that has a significant impact on the scale of information spread is the information spread rate βI and information recovery rate μI. (2) Under the same interaction radius and heterogeneous interaction radius, the parameters that have the most obvious influence on peak density of nodes in state SE and the disease transmission scale of the disease layer are the disease transmission rate βE, the disease recovery rate μE, and the probability of an individual moving across regions pjump.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Yang & Haiyan Liu, 2022. "Sensitivity analysis of disease-information coupling propagation dynamics model parameters," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0265273
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0265273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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