IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0262329.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drought prediction based on an improved VMD-OS-QR-ELM model

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Liu
  • Li Hu Wang
  • Li Bo Yang
  • Xue Mei Liu

Abstract

To overcome the low accuracy, poor reliability, and delay in the current drought prediction models, we propose a new extreme learning machine (ELM) based on an improved variational mode decomposition (VMD). The model first redefines the output of the hidden layer of the ELM model with orthogonal triangular matrix decomposition (QR) to construct an orthogonal triangular ELM (QR-ELM), and then introduces an online sequence learning mechanism (OS) into the QR-ELM to construct an online sequence OR-ELM (OS-QR-ELM), which effectively improves the efficiency of the ELM model. The mutual information extension method was then used to extend both ends of the original signal to improve the VMD end effect. Finally, VMD and OS-QR-ELM were combined to construct a drought prediction method based on the VMD-OS-QR-ELM. The reliability and accuracy of the VMD-OS-QR-ELM model were improved by 86.19% and 93.20%, respectively, compared with those of the support vector regression model combined with empirical mode decomposition. Furthermore, the calculation efficiency of the OS-QR-ELM model was increased by 88.65% and 85.32% compared with that of the ELM and QR-ELM models, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Liu & Li Hu Wang & Li Bo Yang & Xue Mei Liu, 2022. "Drought prediction based on an improved VMD-OS-QR-ELM model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0262329
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0262329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0262329
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0262329&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0262329?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Tao, Rui, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and improved echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 729-751.
    2. Qian Zhu & Yulin Luo & Dongyang Zhou & Yue-Ping Xu & Guoqing Wang & Ye Tian, 2021. "Drought prediction using in situ and remote sensing products with SVM over the Xiang River Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2161-2185, January.
    3. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaoou Li & Yingqin Zhu, 2024. "Neural Networks with Transfer Learning and Frequency Decomposition for Wind Speed Prediction with Missing Data," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Zhang, Yagang & Zhao, Yunpeng & Shen, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Jinghui, 2022. "A comprehensive wind speed prediction system based on Monte Carlo and artificial intelligence algorithms," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    3. Zhang, Guowei & Zhang, Yi & Wang, Hui & Liu, Da & Cheng, Runkun & Yang, Di, 2024. "Short-term wind speed forecasting based on adaptive secondary decomposition and robust temporal convolutional network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    4. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Tian, Zhongda & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Multi-step short-term wind speed prediction based on integrated multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Acikgoz, Hakan & Budak, Umit & Korkmaz, Deniz & Yildiz, Ceyhun, 2021. "WSFNet: An efficient wind speed forecasting model using channel attention-based densely connected convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    7. Elianne Mora & Jenny Cifuentes & Geovanny Marulanda, 2021. "Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Energy: A Comparison of Deep Learning Frameworks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Chen, Qian & He, Peng & Yu, Chuanjin & Zhang, Xiaochi & He, Jiayong & Li, Yongle, 2023. "Multi-step short-term wind speed predictions employing multi-resolution feature fusion and frequency information mining," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    10. Xiang Ying & Keke Zhao & Zhiqiang Liu & Jie Gao & Dongxiao He & Xuewei Li & Wei Xiong, 2022. "Wind Speed Prediction via Collaborative Filtering on Virtual Edge Expanding Graphs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, June.
    11. Kuznetsov, G.V. & Syrodoy, S.V. & Nigay, N.A. & Maksimov, V.I. & Gutareva, N.Yu., 2021. "Features of the processes of heat and mass transfer when drying a large thickness layer of wood biomass," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 498-511.
    12. Ming Pang & Lei Zhang & Yajun Zhang & Ao Zhou & Jianming Dou & Zhepeng Deng, 2022. "Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Hybrid Model of Subseries Reconstruction and Broad Learning System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Bai, Yulong & Liu, Ming-De & Ding, Lin & Ma, Yong-Jie, 2021. "Double-layer staged training echo-state networks for wind speed prediction using variational mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    14. Zhang, Yagang & Zhang, Jinghui & Yu, Leyi & Pan, Zhiya & Feng, Changyou & Sun, Yiqian & Wang, Fei, 2022. "A short-term wind energy hybrid optimal prediction system with denoising and novel error correction technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PC).
    15. Rong Fu & Luze Xie & Tao Liu & Binbin Zheng & Yibo Zhang & Shuai Hu, 2023. "A Soil Moisture Prediction Model, Based on Depth and Water Balance Equation: A Case Study of the Xilingol League Grassland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Tavakol Aghaei, Vahid & Ağababaoğlu, Arda & Bawo, Biram & Naseradinmousavi, Peiman & Yıldırım, Sinan & Yeşilyurt, Serhat & Onat, Ahmet, 2023. "Energy optimization of wind turbines via a neural control policy based on reinforcement learning Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    17. Luis Lopez & Ingrid Oliveros & Luis Torres & Lacides Ripoll & Jose Soto & Giovanny Salazar & Santiago Cantillo, 2020. "Prediction of Wind Speed Using Hybrid Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, November.
    18. Wu, Chunying & Wang, Jianzhou & Hao, Yan, 2022. "Deterministic and uncertainty crude oil price forecasting based on outlier detection and modified multi-objective optimization algorithm," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Javad Saadat & Mohsen Farshad & Hussein Eliasi, 2023. "Optimizing Structure and Internal Unit Weights of Echo State Network for an Efficient LMS-Based Online Training," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Zhang, Chu & Li, Zhengbo & Ge, Yida & Liu, Qianlong & Suo, Leiming & Song, Shihao & Peng, Tian, 2024. "Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0262329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.