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Potential gains in life expectancy from reducing amenable mortality among people diagnosed with serious mental illness in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Dregan
  • Ann McNeill
  • Fiona Gaughran
  • Peter B Jones
  • Anna Bazley
  • Sean Cross
  • Kate Lillywhite
  • David Armstrong
  • Shubulade Smith
  • David P J Osborn
  • Robert Stewart
  • Til Wykes
  • Matthew Hotopf

Abstract

Background: To estimate the potential gain in life expectancy from addressing modifiable risk factors for all-cause mortality (excluding suicide and deaths from accidents or violence) across specific serious mental illness (SMI) subgroups, namely schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorders, and bipolar disorders in a Western population. Methods: We have used relative risks from recent meta-analyses to estimate the population attribution fraction (PAF) due to specific modifiable risk factors known to be associated with all-cause mortality within SMI. The potential gain in life expectancy at birth, age 50 and age 65 years were assessed by estimating the combined effect of modifiable risk factors from different contextual levels (behavioural, healthcare, social) and accounting for the effectiveness of existing interventions tackling these factors. Projections for annual gain in life expectancy at birth during a two-decade was estimated using the Annual Percentage Change (APC) formula. The predicted estimates were based on mortality rates for year 2014–2015. Results: Based on the effectiveness of existing interventions targeting these modifiable risk factors, we estimated potential gain in life expectancy at birth of four (bipolar disorders), six (schizoaffective disorders), or seven years (schizophrenia). The gain in life expectancy at age 50 years was three (bipolar disorders) or five (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years. The projected gain in life expectancy at age 65 years was three (bipolar disorders) or four (schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorders) years. Conclusions: The implementation of existing interventions targeting modifiable risk factors could narrow the current mortality gap between the general and the SMI populations by 24% (men) to 28% (women). These projections represent ideal circumstances and without the limitation of overestimation which often comes with PAFs.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Dregan & Ann McNeill & Fiona Gaughran & Peter B Jones & Anna Bazley & Sean Cross & Kate Lillywhite & David Armstrong & Shubulade Smith & David P J Osborn & Robert Stewart & Til Wykes & Matthew Ho, 2020. "Potential gains in life expectancy from reducing amenable mortality among people diagnosed with serious mental illness in the United Kingdom," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0230674
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0230674
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Whitley, Rob & Denise Campbell, Rosalyn, 2014. "Stigma, agency and recovery amongst people with severe mental illness," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Dusan Hirjak & Achim Hochlehnert & Philipp Arthur Thomann & Katharina Maria Kubera & Knut Schnell, 2016. "Evidence for Distinguishable Treatment Costs among Paranoid Schizophrenia and Schizoaffective Disorder," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-10, July.
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