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Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks

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  • Georg Jäger
  • Christian Hofer
  • Marie Kapeller
  • Manfred Füllsack

Abstract

Critical transitions of complex systems can often be predicted by so-called early-warning signals (EWS). In some cases, however, such signals cannot be detected although a critical transition is imminent. Observing a relation of EWS-detectability and the network topology in which the system is implemented, we simulate and investigate scale-free networks and identify which networks show, and which do not show EWS in the framework of a two state system that exhibits critical transitions. Additionally, we adapt our approach by examining the effective state of the system, rather than its natural state, and conclude that this transformation can reveal hidden EWS in networks where those signals are otherwise obscured by a complex topology.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Jäger & Christian Hofer & Marie Kapeller & Manfred Füllsack, 2017. "Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0189853
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0189853
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Georg Jäger & Manfred Füllsack, 2019. "Systematically false positives in early warning signal analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(2), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Manfred Füllsack & Daniel Reisinger & Marie Kapeller & Georg Jäger, 2022. "Early warning signals from the periphery," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 665-685, May.

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