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Estimating risk propagation between interacting firms on inter-firm complex network

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  • Hayato Goto
  • Hideki Takayasu
  • Misako Takayasu

Abstract

We derive a stochastic function of risk propagation empirically from comprehensive data of chain-reaction bankruptcy events in Japan from 2006 to 2015 over 5,000 pairs of firms. The probability is formulated by firm interaction between the pair of firms; it is proportional to the product of α-th power of the size of the first bankrupt firm and β-th power of that of the chain-reaction bankrupt firm. We confirm that α is positive and β is negative throughout the observing period, meaning that the probability of cascading failure is higher between a larger first bankrupt firm and smaller trading firm. We additionally introduce a numerical model simulating the whole ecosystem of firms and show that the interaction kernel is a key factor to express complexities of spreading bankruptcy risks on real ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayato Goto & Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu, 2017. "Estimating risk propagation between interacting firms on inter-firm complex network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0185712
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0185712
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    Cited by:

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    2. KICHIKAWA Yuichi & IINO Takashi & IYETOMI Hiroshi & INOUE Hiroyasu, 2019. "Hierarchical and Circular Flow Structure of the Interfirm Transaction Network in Japan," Discussion papers 19063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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    5. Xiuquan Deng & Zhu Lu & Xinmiao Yang & Qiuhong Zhao & Dehua Gao & Bing Bai, 2018. "Formation Mechanism and Coping Strategy of Public Emergency for Urban Sustainability: A Perspective of Risk Propagation in the Sociotechnical System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, February.
    6. Wouter Vermeer & Otto Koppius & Peter Vervest, 2018. "The Radiation-Transmission-Reception (RTR) model of propagation: Implications for the effectiveness of network interventions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Wang, Lei & Li, Shouwei & Chen, Tingqiang, 2019. "Investor behavior, information disclosure strategy and counterparty credit risk contagion," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 37-49.
    8. Li, Yuhong & Zobel, Christopher W., 2020. "Exploring supply chain network resilience in the presence of the ripple effect," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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