IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0144945.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Emotions Expressed Online Correlate with Actual Changes in Decision-Making?: The Case of Stock Day Traders

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Liu
  • Ramesh Govindan
  • Brian Uzzi

Abstract

Emotions are increasingly inferred linguistically from online data with a goal of predicting off-line behavior. Yet, it is unknown whether emotions inferred linguistically from online communications correlate with actual changes in off-line activity. We analyzed all 886,000 trading decisions and 1,234,822 instant messages of 30 professional day traders over a continuous 2 year period. Linguistically inferring the traders’ emotional states from instant messages, we find that emotions expressed in online communications reflect the same distributions of emotions found in controlled experiments done on traders. Further, we find that expressed online emotions predict the profitability of actual trading behavior. Relative to their baselines, traders who expressed little emotion or traders that expressed high levels of emotion made relatively unprofitable trades. Conversely, traders expressing moderate levels of emotional activation made relatively profitable trades.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Liu & Ramesh Govindan & Brian Uzzi, 2016. "Do Emotions Expressed Online Correlate with Actual Changes in Decision-Making?: The Case of Stock Day Traders," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0144945
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144945
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144945
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144945&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0144945?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. Karim S Kassam & Amanda R Markey & Vladimir L Cherkassky & George Loewenstein & Marcel Adam Just, 2013. "Identifying Emotions on the Basis of Neural Activation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12, June.
    3. Wilcox, Nathaniel T, 1993. "Lottery Choice: Incentives, Complexity and Decision Time," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(421), pages 1397-1417, November.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khalid A. Bin Abdulrahman & Abdulaziz Yahya Alsharif & Abdulrahman Bandar Alotaibi & Abdulrahman Ali Alajaji & Abdullah Ali Alhubaysh & Abdulrahman Ibrahim Alsubaihi & Nahaa Eid Alsubaie, 2022. "Anxiety and Stress among Day Traders in Saudi Arabia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Manda, Vijaya Kittu & Sana, Alekhya, 2021. "Impact Of Mental Health And Well-Being Of Indian Stock Market Traders," MPRA Paper 109941, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Beckert, Jens & Arndt, H. Lukas R., 2024. "The Greek tragedy: Narratives and imagined futures in the Greek sovereign debt crisis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 24/4, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2019. "Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences," Papers 1908.01406, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    2. Shazia Ghani, 2011. "A re-visit to Minsky after 2007 financial meltdown," Post-Print halshs-01027435, HAL.
    3. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    4. Cagli, Efe Caglar & Taskin, Dilvin & Evrim Mandaci, Pınar, 2019. "The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: Evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Andrew Weinbach & Rodney J. Paul, 2009. "National television coverage and the behavioural bias of bettors: the American college football totals market," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 55-66, April.
    6. Oxelheim, Lars & Rafferty, Michael, 2005. "On the static efficiency of secondary bond markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 117-135, April.
    7. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Nuruddeen Usman & Kodili Nwanneka & Nduka, 2023. "Announcement Effect of COVID-19 on Cryptocurrencies," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-4.
    9. Robert C. Merton, 2006. "Paul Samuelson and Financial Economics," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(2), pages 9-31, October.
    10. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    11. Camille Baulant & Nivine Albouz, 2021. "Has financial globalization since 1990 reduced income inequality: the role of rating announcements on the volatility and the returns of the Brazilian Financial Market [Les annonces de notation souv," Working Papers hal-03258994, HAL.
    12. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Choi, Gahyun & Park, Kwangyeol & Yi, Eojin & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2023. "Price fairness: Clean energy stocks and the overall market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    14. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    16. Spira, Robin, 2024. "How does ESG rating disagreement influence analyst forecast dispersion?," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 9(3), pages 1769-1804.
    17. Dhanya Jothimani & Ravi Shankar & Surendra S. Yadav, 2016. "Discrete Wavelet Transform-Based Prediction of Stock Index: A Study on National Stock Exchange Fifty Index," Papers 1605.07278, arXiv.org.
    18. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 601-620, December.
    19. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
    20. Klodt, Henning & Lehment, Harmen (ed.), 2009. "The Crisis and Beyond," Kiel E-Books, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), number 60981.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0144945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.