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Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident

Author

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  • Mark P Little
  • Deukwoo Kwon
  • Lydia B Zablotska
  • Alina V Brenner
  • Elizabeth K Cahoon
  • Alexander V Rozhko
  • Olga N Polyanskaya
  • Victor F Minenko
  • Ivan Golovanov
  • André Bouville
  • Vladimir Drozdovitch

Abstract

Background: The excess incidence of thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus observed a few years after the Chernobyl accident is considered to be largely the result of 131I released from the reactor. Although the Belarus thyroid cancer prevalence data has been previously analyzed, no account was taken of dose measurement error. Methods: We examined dose-response patterns in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 11,732 persons aged under 18 at the time of the accident, diagnosed during 1996–2004, who had direct thyroid 131I activity measurement, and were resident in the most radio-actively contaminated regions of Belarus. Three methods of dose-error correction (regression calibration, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo) were applied. Results: There was a statistically significant (p 0.2). Conclusions: In summary, the relatively small contribution of unshared classical dose error in the current study results in comparatively modest effects on the regression parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark P Little & Deukwoo Kwon & Lydia B Zablotska & Alina V Brenner & Elizabeth K Cahoon & Alexander V Rozhko & Olga N Polyanskaya & Victor F Minenko & Ivan Golovanov & André Bouville & Vladimir Drozdo, 2015. "Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0139826
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0139826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark P Little & Alexander G Kukush & Sergii V Masiuk & Sergiy Shklyar & Raymond J Carroll & Jay H Lubin & Deukwoo Kwon & Alina V Brenner & Mykola D Tronko & Kiyohiko Mabuchi & Tetiana I Bogdanova & Ma, 2014. "Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Estimates of Thyroid Cancer Risk among Ukrainian Children and Adolescents Exposed from the Chernobyl Accident," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, January.
    2. Daniel W. Schafer & Jay H. Lubin & Elaine Ron & Marilyn Stovall & Raymond J. Carroll, 2001. "Thyroid Cancer Following Scalp Irradiation: A Reanalysis Accounting for Uncertainty in Dosimetry," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 689-697, September.
    3. Daniel O Stram & Dale L Preston & Mikhail Sokolnikov & Bruce Napier & Kenneth J Kopecky & John Boice & Harold Beck & John Till & Andre Bouville, 2015. "Shared Dosimetry Error in Epidemiological Dose-Response Analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-18, March.
    4. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    5. Donald A. Pierce & Albrecht M. Kellerer, 2004. "Adjusting for covariate errors with nonparametric assessment of the true covariate distribution," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(4), pages 863-876, December.
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