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Has Wild Poliovirus Been Eliminated from Nigeria?

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  • Michael Famulare

Abstract

Wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3) has not been seen anywhere since the last case of WPV3-associated paralysis in Nigeria in November 2012. At the time of writing, the most recent case of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in Nigeria occurred in July 2014, and WPV1 has not been seen in Africa since a case in Somalia in August 2014. No cases associated with circulating vaccine-derived type 2 poliovirus (cVDPV2) have been detected in Nigeria since November 2014. Has WPV1 been eliminated from Africa? Has WPV3 been eradicated globally? Has Nigeria interrupted cVDPV2 transmission? These questions are difficult because polio surveillance is based on paralysis and paralysis only occurs in a small fraction of infections. This report provides estimates for the probabilities of poliovirus elimination in Nigeria given available data as of March 31, 2015. It is based on a model of disease transmission that is built from historical polio incidence rates and is designed to represent the uncertainties in transmission dynamics and poliovirus detection that are fundamental to interpreting long time periods without cases. The model estimates that, as of March 31, 2015, the probability of WPV1 elimination in Nigeria is 84%, and that if WPV1 has not been eliminated, a new case will be detected with 99% probability by the end of 2015. The probability of WPV3 elimination (and thus global eradication) is > 99%. However, it is unlikely that the ongoing transmission of cVDPV2 has been interrupted; the probability of cVDPV2 elimination rises to 83% if no new cases are detected by April 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Famulare, 2015. "Has Wild Poliovirus Been Eliminated from Nigeria?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0135765
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0135765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Jong‐Hoon Kim & Cara C. Burns & Olen M. Kew & M. Steven Oberste & Ousmane M. Diop & Steven G.F. Wassilak & Stephen L. Cochi & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2013. "Oral Poliovirus Vaccine Evolution and Insights Relevant to Modeling the Risks of Circulating Vaccine‐Derived Polioviruses (cVDPVs)," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 680-702, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika A. Kalkowska & Kimberly M. Thompson, 2021. "Modeling Undetected Live Poliovirus Circulation After Apparent Interruption of Transmission: Borno and Yobe in Northeast Nigeria," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(2), pages 303-311, February.

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