IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0131349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Effect of Natural Multidecadal Ocean Temperature Oscillations on Contiguous U.S. Regional Temperatures

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce E Kurtz

Abstract

Atmospheric temperature time series for the nine climate regions of the contiguous U.S. are accurately reproduced by the superposition of oscillatory modes, representing the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on a monotonic mode representing, at least in part, the effect of radiant forcing due to increasing atmospheric CO2. The relative importance of the different modes varies among the nine climate regions, grouping them into three mega-regions: Southeastern comprising the South, Southeast and Ohio Valley; Central comprising the Southwest, Upper Midwest, and Northeast; and Northwestern comprising the West, Northwest, and Northern Rockies & Plains. The defining characteristics of the mega-regions are: Southeastern – dominated by the AMO, no PDO influence; Central – influenced by the AMO, no PDO influence, Northwestern – influenced by both the AMO and PDO. Temperature vs. time curves calculated by combining the separate monotonic and oscillatory modes agree well with the measured temperature time series, indicating that the 1938-1974 small decrease in contiguous U.S. temperature was caused by the superposition of the downward-trending oscillatory mode on the upward-trending monotonic mode while the 1980-2000 large increase in temperature was caused by the superposition of the upward-trending oscillatory mode on the upward-trending monotonic mode. The oscillatory mode, mostly representing the AMO, was responsible for about 72% of the entire contiguous U.S. temperature increase over that time span with the contribution varying from 86 to 42% for individual climate regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce E Kurtz, 2015. "The Effect of Natural Multidecadal Ocean Temperature Oscillations on Contiguous U.S. Regional Temperatures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0131349
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131349
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0131349
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0131349&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0131349?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mads Faurschou Knudsen & Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz & Bo Holm Jacobsen & Antoon Kuijpers, 2011. "Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 2(1), pages 1-8, September.
    2. Diego Macias & Adolf Stips & Elisa Garcia-Gorriz, 2014. "Application of the Singular Spectrum Analysis Technique to Study the Recent Hiatus on the Global Surface Temperature Record," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-7, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexey A. Lyubushin & Leonid B. Klyashtorin, 2012. "Short Term Global Dt Prediction Using (60–70)-Years Periodicity," Energy & Environment, , vol. 23(1), pages 75-85, January.
    2. Chen, Li & Gao, Jiti & Vahid, Farshid, 2022. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 240-254.
    3. John Beghin, 2015. "Assessing Food Security in Tanzania in the Next Decade," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-winter-2015-1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    4. Parker Albert & Ollier Clifford, 2021. "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is not collapsing," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 40(3), pages 163-167, September.
    5. Simon L. L. Michel & Didier Swingedouw & Pablo Ortega & Guillaume Gastineau & Juliette Mignot & Gerard McCarthy & Myriam Khodri, 2022. "Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    6. Nicola Scafetta, 2013. "Solar and Planetary Oscillation Control on Climate Change: Hind-Cast, Forecast and a Comparison with the Cmip5 Gcms," Energy & Environment, , vol. 24(3-4), pages 455-496, June.
    7. Nasri, Bouchra R. & Rémillard, Bruno N. & Bouezmarni, Taoufik, 2019. "Semi-parametric copula-based models under non-stationarity," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 347-365.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0131349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.