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Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change

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  • Luciana L Porfirio
  • Rebecca M B Harris
  • Edward C Lefroy
  • Sonia Hugh
  • Susan F Gould
  • Greg Lee
  • Nathaniel L Bindoff
  • Brendan Mackey

Abstract

Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciana L Porfirio & Rebecca M B Harris & Edward C Lefroy & Sonia Hugh & Susan F Gould & Greg Lee & Nathaniel L Bindoff & Brendan Mackey, 2014. "Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0113749
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0113749
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    2. Götz Schroth & Peter Läderach & Armando Isaac Martinez-Valle & Christian Bunn, 2017. "From site-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 903-927, August.
    3. Seungbum Hong & Inyoung Jang & Daegeun Kim & Suhwan Kim & Hyun Su Park & Kyungeun Lee, 2022. "Predicting Potential Habitat Changes of Two Invasive Alien Fish Species with Climate Change at a Regional Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-12, May.
    4. Birhanu Kagnew & Awol Assefa & Asfaw Degu, 2022. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Sustainable Production of Two Legumes Important Economically and for Food Security: Mungbeans and Cowpeas in Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Minerva Singh & Jessamine Badcock-Scruton & C. Matilda Collins, 2021. "What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-14, March.

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