IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0027455.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Anne von Ruesten
  • Annika Steffen
  • Anna Floegel
  • Daphne L van der A
  • Giovanna Masala
  • Anne Tjønneland
  • Jytte Halkjaer
  • Domenico Palli
  • Nicholas J Wareham
  • Ruth J F Loos
  • Thorkild I A Sørensen
  • Heiner Boeing

Abstract

Objective: To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods: Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results: During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion: Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne von Ruesten & Annika Steffen & Anna Floegel & Daphne L van der A & Giovanna Masala & Anne Tjønneland & Jytte Halkjaer & Domenico Palli & Nicholas J Wareham & Ruth J F Loos & Thorkild I A Sørensen, 2011. "Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0027455
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027455
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0027455
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0027455&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0027455?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anirban Basu, 2010. "Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 30(3), pages 1-11, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2017. "Modelling body weight, dieting and obesity traps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 139-146.
    2. Van Hoye, Aurélie & Vandoorne, Chantal & Absil, Gaetan & Lecomte, Flore & Fallon, Catherine & Lombrail, Pierre & Vuillemin, Anne, 2019. "Health enhancing physical activity in all policies? Comparison of national public actors between France and Belgium," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 327-332.
    3. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2016. "Weight loss, obesity traps and policy policies," MPRA Paper 71327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Annika Steffen & Thorkild I A Sørensen & Sven Knüppel & Noemie Travier & María-José Sánchez & José María Huerta & J Ramón Quirós & Eva Ardanaz & Miren Dorronsoro & Birgit Teucher & Kuanrong Li & H Bas, 2013. "Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-11, July.
    5. Michael Lebenbaum & Osvaldo Espin-Garcia & Yi Li & Laura C Rosella, 2018. "Development and validation of a population based risk algorithm for obesity: The Obesity Population Risk Tool (OPoRT)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2015. "Body Weight, Dieting and Obesity Traps," MPRA Paper 67671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nikoletta Vidra & Maarten J. Bijlsma & Fanny Janssen, 2018. "Impact of Different Estimation Methods on Obesity-Attributable Mortality Levels and Trends: The Case of The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-11, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2014. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 27-49, February.
    2. Lartey, Stella T. & Si, Lei & Otahal, Petr & de Graaff, Barbara & Boateng, Godfred O. & Biritwum, Richard Berko & Minicuci, Nadia & Kowal, Paul & Magnussen, Costan G. & Palmer, Andrew J., 2020. "Annual transition probabilities of overweight and obesity in older adults: Evidence from World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    3. Samuel H. Preston & Andrew Stokes & Neil K. Mehta & Bochen Cao, 2012. "Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States," NBER Working Papers 18407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0027455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.