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Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Anne von Ruesten
  • Annika Steffen
  • Anna Floegel
  • Daphne L van der A
  • Giovanna Masala
  • Anne Tjønneland
  • Jytte Halkjaer
  • Domenico Palli
  • Nicholas J Wareham
  • Ruth J F Loos
  • Thorkild I A Sørensen
  • Heiner Boeing

Abstract

Objective: To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations. Methods: Data of 97 942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as “Diogenes cohort” in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction. Results: During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R2 = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R2 = 0.99). Conclusion: Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne von Ruesten & Annika Steffen & Anna Floegel & Daphne L van der A & Giovanna Masala & Anne Tjønneland & Jytte Halkjaer & Domenico Palli & Nicholas J Wareham & Ruth J F Loos & Thorkild I A Sørensen, 2011. "Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-9, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0027455
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anirban Basu, 2010. "Forecasting Distribution of Body Mass Index in the United States: Is There More Room for Growth?," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 30(3), pages 1-11, May.
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    1. Nikoletta Vidra & Maarten J. Bijlsma & Fanny Janssen, 2018. "Impact of Different Estimation Methods on Obesity-Attributable Mortality Levels and Trends: The Case of The Netherlands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-11, September.
    2. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2016. "Weight loss, obesity traps and policy policies," MPRA Paper 71327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Michael Lebenbaum & Osvaldo Espin-Garcia & Yi Li & Laura C Rosella, 2018. "Development and validation of a population based risk algorithm for obesity: The Obesity Population Risk Tool (OPoRT)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, January.
    4. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2015. "Body Weight, Dieting and Obesity Traps," MPRA Paper 67671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Barbieri, Paolo Nicola, 2017. "Modelling body weight, dieting and obesity traps," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 139-146.
    6. Van Hoye, Aurélie & Vandoorne, Chantal & Absil, Gaetan & Lecomte, Flore & Fallon, Catherine & Lombrail, Pierre & Vuillemin, Anne, 2019. "Health enhancing physical activity in all policies? Comparison of national public actors between France and Belgium," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 327-332.
    7. Annika Steffen & Thorkild I A Sørensen & Sven Knüppel & Noemie Travier & María-José Sánchez & José María Huerta & J Ramón Quirós & Eva Ardanaz & Miren Dorronsoro & Birgit Teucher & Kuanrong Li & H Bas, 2013. "Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-11, July.

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