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Conflict violence reduction and pregnancy outcomes: A regression discontinuity design in Colombia

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  • Giancarlo Buitrago
  • Rodrigo Moreno-Serra

Abstract

Background: The relationship between exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality has not been studied empirically using rigorous methods and appropriate data. We investigated the association between reduced exposure to conflict violence during pregnancy and the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes in Colombia. Methods and findings: We adopted a regression discontinuity (RD) design using the July 20, 2015 cease-fire declared during the Colombian peace process as an exogenous discontinuous change in exposure to conflict events during pregnancy, comparing women with conception dates before and after the cease-fire date. We constructed the cohorts of all pregnant women in Colombia for each day between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2017 using birth and death certificates. A total of 3,254,696 women were followed until the end of pregnancy. We measured conflict exposure as the total number of conflict events that occurred in the municipality where a pregnant woman lived during her pregnancy. We first assessed whether the cease-fire did induce a discontinuous fall in conflict exposure for women with conception dates after the cease-fire to then estimate the association of this reduced exposure with the risks of miscarriage, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality. We found that the July 20, 2015 cease-fire was associated with a reduction of the average number of conflict events (from 2.64 to 2.40) to which women were exposed during pregnancy in their municipalities of residence (mean differences −0.24; 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.35 to −0.13; p

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Buitrago & Rodrigo Moreno-Serra, 2021. "Conflict violence reduction and pregnancy outcomes: A regression discontinuity design in Colombia," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(7), pages 1-19, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1003684
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003684
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
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