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Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling

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  • Dana Charles McCoy
  • Evan D Peet
  • Majid Ezzati
  • Goodarz Danaei
  • Maureen M Black
  • Christopher R Sudfeld
  • Wafaie Fawzi
  • Günther Fink

Abstract

Background: The development of cognitive and socioemotional skills early in life influences later health and well-being. Existing estimates of unmet developmental potential in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are based on either measures of physical growth or proxy measures such as poverty. In this paper we aim to directly estimate the number of children in LMICs who would be reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development. Methods and Findings: The present paper uses Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) data collected between 2005 and 2015 from 99,222 3- and 4-y-old children living in 35 LMICs as part of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) programs. First, we estimate the prevalence of low cognitive and/or socioemotional ECDI scores within our MICS/DHS sample. Next, we test a series of ordinary least squares regression models predicting low ECDI scores across our MICS/DHS sample countries based on country-level data from the Human Development Index (HDI) and the Nutrition Impact Model Study. We use cross-validation to select the model with the best predictive validity. We then apply this model to all LMICs to generate country-level estimates of the prevalence of low ECDI scores globally, as well as confidence intervals around these estimates. Conclusions: The number of children globally failing to reach their developmental potential remains large. Additional research is needed to identify the specific causes of poor developmental outcomes in diverse settings, as well as potential context-specific interventions that might promote children’s early cognitive and socioemotional well-being. Using survey data from 35 low- and middle-income countries, Dana McCoy and colleagues estimate the prevalence of children who are reported by their caregivers to show low cognitive and/or socioemotional development.Why Was This Study Done?: What Did the Researchers Do and Find?: What Do These Findings Mean?:

Suggested Citation

  • Dana Charles McCoy & Evan D Peet & Majid Ezzati & Goodarz Danaei & Maureen M Black & Christopher R Sudfeld & Wafaie Fawzi & Günther Fink, 2016. "Early Childhood Developmental Status in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: National, Regional, and Global Prevalence Estimates Using Predictive Modeling," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1002034
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002034
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    1. Bago, Jean-Louis & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Akakpo, Koffi & Lompo, Miaba Louise & Souratié, Wamadini dite Minata & Ouédraogo, Ernest, 2020. "Early Childhood Education and Child Development: New Evidence from Ghana," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Hannah Johnstone & Yi Yang & Hao Xue & Scott Rozelle, 2021. "Infant Cognitive Development and Stimulating Parenting Practices in Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Hentschel, Elizabeth & Tran, Ha T.T & Ha Nguyen, Van & Tran, Thuy & Yousafzai, Aisha K., 2023. "The effects of a childcare training program on childcare quality and child development: Evidence from a quasi-experimental study in Vietnam," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Kasim Allel & Gerard Abou Jaoude & Stavros Poupakis & Neha Batura & Jolene Skordis & Hassan Haghparast-Bidgoli, 2021. "Exploring the Associations between Early Childhood Development Outcomes and Ecological Country-Level Factors across Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-15, March.
    5. Verónica Schiariti & Rune J. Simeonsson & Karen Hall, 2021. "Promoting Developmental Potential in Early Childhood: A Global Framework for Health and Education," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Yusuf Emre Akgunduz & Pelin Akyol & Abdurrahman B. Aydemir & Murat Demirci & Murat G. Kirdar, 2023. "Maternal Education and Early Child Development: The Roles of Parental Support for Learning, Learning Materials, and Father Characteristics," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2305, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    7. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Akyol, Pelin & Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Demirci, Murat & Kirdar, Murat Güray, 2024. "Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling Reform on Early Childhood Development in a Middle-Income Country," IZA Discussion Papers 17249, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Divya Nair & Olakunle Alonge & Jena Derakhshani Hamadani & Shumona Sharmin Salam & Irteja Islam & Adnan A. Hyder, 2017. "Developmental Assessments during Injury Research: Is Enrollment of Very Young Children in Crèches Associated with Better Scores?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-10, September.
    9. Marina Mensi & Alain Ahishakiye & Katharine Journeay & Roberto Baiocco & Theresa Stichick Betancourt & Giacomo M. Paganotti, 2023. "HIV-Exposed Uninfected Children: A Systematic Review on Psychological Well-Being and Association with School Performances in Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(3), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Claudia Cappa & Nicole Petrowski & Elga Filipa De Castro & Emily Geisen & Patricia LeBaron & Betania Allen-Leigh & Jean Marie Place & Paul J. Scanlon, 2021. "Identifying and Minimizing Errors in the Measurement of Early Childhood Development: Lessons Learned from the Cognitive Testing of the ECDI2030," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(22), pages 1-13, November.
    11. Bago, Jean-Louis & Ouédraogo, Moussa & Akakpo, Koffi & Lompo, Miaba Louise & Souratié, Wamadini M. & Ouédraogo, Ernest, 2019. "Early Childhood Education and Children Development : Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 95868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Fink, Günther & Venkataramani, Atheendar S. & Zanolini, Arianna, 2021. "Early life adversity, biological adaptation, and human capital: evidence from an interrupted malaria control program in Zambia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Wolf, Sharon & Suntheimer, Noelle M., 2020. "Predictors of parental disciplinary practices and associations with child outcomes among Ghanaian preschoolers," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    14. Dejana Bouillet & Sandra Antulić Majcen, 2022. "Risks of Social Exclusion Among Children in ECEC Settings: Assessments by Parents and ECEC Teachers," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, September.

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