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Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect

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  • Phillip Cassey
  • Steven Delean
  • Julie L Lockwood
  • Jason S Sadowski
  • Tim M Blackburn

Abstract

A consistent determinant of the establishment success of alien species appears to be the number of individuals that are introduced to found a population (propagule pressure), yet variation in the form of this relationship has been largely unexplored. Here, we present the first quantitative systematic review of this form, using Bayesian meta-analytical methods. The relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success has been evaluated for a broad range of taxa and life histories, including invertebrates, herbaceous plants and long-lived trees, and terrestrial and aquatic vertebrates. We found a positive mean effect of propagule pressure on establishment success to be a feature of every hypothesis we tested. However, establishment success most critically depended on propagule pressures in the range of 10–100 individuals. Heterogeneity in effect size was associated primarily with different analytical approaches, with some evidence of larger effect sizes in animal rather than plant introductions. Conversely, no variation was accounted for in any analysis by the scale of study (field to global) or methodology (observational, experimental, or proxy) used. Our analyses reveal remarkable consistency in the form of the relationship between propagule pressure and alien population establishment success.Author summary: Alien species are a major contributor to human-induced global environmental change. The probability of whether or not an alien species will successfully establish in a novel environment is often related to the number of times a species is introduced and the number of individuals that are introduced each time, collectively termed ‘propagule pressure’. Despite this evidence, we don’t yet know whether this is a universal characteristic of species invasions, and the role of propagule pressure continues to be questioned. Here, we present a quantitative meta-analysis of the relationship between propagule pressure and establishment success across a broad range of species and geographies. We found that propagule pressure was consistently and positively associated with the establishment success of alien species. We conclude that propagule pressure is indeed the most consistent and strongest determinant of alien species establishment. No other factors suggested to explain establishment success can claim such universal support. Our results underpin a clear policy and management target for slowing invasion rates by reducing propagule pressure—ideally to single figures or zero—regardless of any other feature of the invasion.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip Cassey & Steven Delean & Julie L Lockwood & Jason S Sadowski & Tim M Blackburn, 2018. "Dissecting the null model for biological invasions: A meta-analysis of the propagule pressure effect," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pbio00:2005987
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.2005987
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    2. Corey J. A. Bradshaw & Boris Leroy & Céline Bellard & David Roiz & Céline Albert & Alice Fournier & Morgane Barbet-Massin & Jean-Michel Salles & Frédéric Simard & Franck Courchamp, 2016. "Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Regan Early & Bethany A. Bradley & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Joshua J. Lawler & Julian D. Olden & Dana M. Blumenthal & Patrick Gonzalez & Edwin D. Grosholz & Ines Ibañez & Luke P. Miller & Cascade J. B. Sort, 2016. "Global threats from invasive alien species in the twenty-first century and national response capacities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-9, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yiming Li & Tim M. Blackburn & Zexu Luo & Tianjian Song & Freyja Watters & Wenhao Li & Teng Deng & Zhenhua Luo & Yuanyi Li & Jiacong Du & Meiling Niu & Jun Zhang & Jinyu Zhang & Jiaxue Yang & Siqi Wan, 2023. "Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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