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Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage

Author

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  • van Kesteren Erik-Jan

    (Methodology & Statistics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands)

  • Bergkamp Tom

    (Royal Dutch Football Association, Zeist, Netherlands)

Abstract

Successful performance in Formula One is determined by combination of both the driver’s skill and race-car constructor advantage. This makes key performance questions in the sport difficult to answer. For example, who is the best Formula One driver, which is the best constructor, and what is their relative contribution to success? In this paper, we answer these questions based on data from the hybrid era in Formula One (2014–2021 seasons). We present a novel Bayesian multilevel rank-ordered logit regression method to model individual race finishing positions. We show that our modelling approach describes our data well, which allows for precise inferences about driver skill and constructor advantage. We conclude that Hamilton and Verstappen are the best drivers in the hybrid era, the top-three teams (Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull) clearly outperform other constructors, and approximately 88 % of the variance in race results is explained by the constructor. We argue that this modelling approach may prove useful for sports beyond Formula One, as it creates performance ratings for independent components contributing to success.

Suggested Citation

  • van Kesteren Erik-Jan & Bergkamp Tom, 2023. "Bayesian analysis of Formula One race results: disentangling driver skill and constructor advantage," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 19(4), pages 273-293, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:19:y:2023:i:4:p:273-293:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2022-0021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carpenter, Bob & Gelman, Andrew & Hoffman, Matthew D. & Lee, Daniel & Goodrich, Ben & Betancourt, Michael & Brubaker, Marcus & Guo, Jiqiang & Li, Peter & Riddell, Allen, 2017. "Stan: A Probabilistic Programming Language," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 76(i01).
    2. Reiner Eichenberger & David Stadelmann, 2009. "Who Is The Best Formula 1 Driver? An Economic Approach to Evaluating Talent," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 389-406, December.
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