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Forest Wood Consumption and Wood Shortage in Pakistan: Estimation and Projection through System Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Naila Nazir

    (Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar.)

  • Laura Schmitt Olabisi

    (Department of Community Sustainability Environmental Science and Policy Programme, Michigan State University, USA)

  • Salman Ahmad

    (Faculty of Business, Dubai Men’s College, Higher College of Technology, United Arab Emirates.)

Abstract

Consumption rates of major forest products such as timber and firewood, place significant strain on wood stock and forest area in Pakistan. With the country's rising population, the consumption of these two major products is increasing because of the growing energy demand, and no alternative products are likely to replace wood consumption in the near future. We apply system dynamics modelling to an analysis of the forestry sector in Pakistan for novel insights into the drivers and future trajectories of wood consumption. The present research is based on time series macroeconomic data from 1990-2010 and projections to 2040 of wood supply, forest area, population growth, wood extraction, wood imports and different uses of wood in the country. The study reveals that there is no significant increase in area under forest, while consumption of firewood and timber has increased. The consumption of firewood is greater than timber consumption in Pakistan, both in percentage share and in total volume of wood consumption. The sustainable supply of wood is less than wood consumption, and with population growth this gap is increasing; wood supply from agricultural lands is a viable option to fill the gap. Keywords: Wood Consumption, Sustainable Wood Supply, Projected Wood Shortage

Suggested Citation

  • Naila Nazir & Laura Schmitt Olabisi & Salman Ahmad, 2018. "Forest Wood Consumption and Wood Shortage in Pakistan: Estimation and Projection through System Dynamics," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 73-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:57:y:2018:i:1:p:73-98
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kamal Hussain & Fazlur Rahman & Ihsan Ullah & Zahir Ahmad & Udo Schickhoff, 2022. "Assessing the Impacts of Population Growth and Roads on Forest Cover: A Temporal Approach to Reconstruct the Deforestation Process in District Kurram, Pakistan, since 1972," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Wajahat Ullah Khan Tareen & Muhammad Tariq Dilbar & Muhammad Farhan & Muhammad Ali Nawaz & Ali Waqar Durrani & Kamran Ali Memon & Saad Mekhilef & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Ben Horan & Muhammad Amir & Mu, 2019. "Present Status and Potential of Biomass Energy in Pakistan Based on Existing and Future Renewable Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, December.

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