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Crowding-in or Crowding-out? Modelling the Relationship between Public and Private Fixed Capital Formation Using Co-integration Analysis: The Case of Pakistan 1964-2000

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  • Naveed H. Naqvi

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Durham, UK.)

Abstract

This paper uses the Co-integrating VAR’s [Johansen (1988); Ericsson, et al. (1998)] to examine the relationship between economic growth, public investment, and private investment in the presence of unit roots. Exogeneity is not implicitly assumed but explicitly tested for, and evidence of co-integration and feedback between public and private investment leads to a model in the form of a parsimonious VAR. The analysis is conducted using 37 years of annual data for Pakistan. The analysis suggests that public investment has a positive impact on private investment, and that economic growth drives both private and public investment as predicted by the accelerator-based models.

Suggested Citation

  • Naveed H. Naqvi, 2002. "Crowding-in or Crowding-out? Modelling the Relationship between Public and Private Fixed Capital Formation Using Co-integration Analysis: The Case of Pakistan 1964-2000," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 255-276.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:41:y:2002:i:3:p:255-276
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2011. "Public and Private Investment in Saudi Economy: Evidence from Weak Exogeneity and Bound Cointegration Tests," MPRA Paper 56537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amjad Ali & Farooq Ahmed & Fazal- Ur- Rahman, 2016. "Impact of Government Borrowing on Financial Development (A case study of Pakistan)," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 135-143, September.
    3. Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Khan, Saniya, 2008. "The Determinants of Private Investment and the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 49301, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Syed, Shabib Haider & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2007. "Public Policy and Private Investment in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 57675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sajawal Khan & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2007. "What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan," Finance Working Papers 22202, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Hassan B. GHASSAN & Hassan R. ALHAJHOJ, 2012. "Bound Cointegration Test on Private Investment’s Equation: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
    7. Rouhollah Shahnazi & Maryam Lashani Afrasiabi, 2018. "Effect of Exogenous Oil Revenue Shocks on Reallocation of Public and Private Investments in Iran," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 27-37.
    8. Imtiaz Ahmed & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Do Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Matter to Private Investment? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 145-161.

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