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Ciclo crediticio y acelerador cambiario: evidencia empírica y consecuencias para la regulación prudencial

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  • Renzo Jiménez Sotelo

Abstract

En este trabajo se pone en evidencia el mecanismo amplificador que tiene la evolución del tipo de cambio sobre el ciclo crediticio en una economía con alta dolarización financiera, un mecanismo que se puede denominar «acelerador cambiario». En este contexto, la natural prociclicidad entre el ciclo económico y el ciclo crediticio pasa a un segundo plano, si es que no se esvanece. El documento desarrolla el marco teórico que sustenta el mecanismo de transmisión y muestra algunos hechos estilizados del sistema crediticio peruano. A continuación se plantea un modelo econométrico con datos de panel para estimar el efecto del acelerador cambiario sobre la evolución de la mora crediticia en las entidades del sistema. A partir de estos resultados empíricos, y bajo la filosofía de Basilea II, se discute la forma de implementar, en los bancos y demás entidades de crédito, una regulación prudencial que requiera la asignación de provisiones y de capital para el riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario originado por los créditos en moneda extranjera. La idea básica es promover la internalización de las externalidades producidas por este factor de riesgo no diversificable.

Suggested Citation

  • Renzo Jiménez Sotelo, 2010. "Ciclo crediticio y acelerador cambiario: evidencia empírica y consecuencias para la regulación prudencial," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 33(65), pages 133-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2010:i:65:p:133-176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Renzo Jiménez Sotelo, 2004. "Riesgo crediticio derivado del riesgo cambiario: perspectiva de una economía latinoamericana parcialmente dolarizada," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 31(54), pages 92-134.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martín Vallcorba & Javier Delgado, 2007. "Determinantes de la morosidad bancaria en una economía dolarizada. El caso uruguayo," Working Papers 0722, Banco de España.
    2. Oscar Dancourt Masías & Renzo Jiménez Sotelo, 2017. "La experiencia de la banca de desarrollo en el Perú: 1990-2015," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2017-444, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Jiménez Sotelo, Renzo, 2012. "Políticas para la gestión de activos y pasivos soberanos: Una propuesta para el Tesoro del Perú [Policies for sovereign asset and liability management: A proposal for the Treasury of Peru]," MPRA Paper 119895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jiménez-Sotelo, Renzo A., 2023. "La influencia del mercado de deuda pública interna en el desarrollo financiero: evidencia de 52 países en 1990-2020," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 90(359), pages 773-804, julio-sep.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclo crediticio; modelos con datos de panel; dolarización; estabilidad financiera; riesgo cambiario; regulación financiera.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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