Limiting the climate impact of the Trump administration

The climate actions of the current US administration under President Trump will undoubtedly impact US domestic emissions. They could even potentially influence global action. But some will last longer than others. A simple heuristic for analysing actions is by looking at a combination of their likely attributable future emissions and ‘lock-in potential’. Lock-in potential refers to the probable lifespan and reversibility of emissions producing actions. Using the lens of lock-in potential reveals that the actions of Trump that have received the most backlash are often the least damaging. Low lock-in potential actions are measures that are easily reversed and will only shape US emissions in the short-term. This includes withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which could realistically last less than three months. Withdrawal may have no lock-in potential if it does not impact the emissions of the US or others. High lock-in potential actions are policies that will change the emissions trajectory of the US in the long-term past 2030 and can only be reversed with high costs. For instance, the approval of the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines will last for half a century or more and could result in additional annual emissions of more than 200 Mt CO2e. The perspective of lock-in potential is also applied to previous executives. Even progressive presidents such as Obama have been constrained and possess poor climate credentials due to the underlying culture and structure of US climate politics. This long-term view suggests that the fundamental problem is not the Trump administration. Instead, it is the domestic fossil fuel lobby and Republican party, which have shaped the policy course of Trump and other executives. Trump is not an aberration for US climate policy, but a predictable symptom of a locked-in pattern of behaviour.