IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v11y2024i1d10.1057_s41599-024-03055-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty and cash dividend policy: evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Chuanzhen Li

    (Zhejiang Gongshang University)

  • Liang Zhao

    (Anhui University)

  • Yiwen Zhang

    (Zhejiang Gongshang University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the dividend policy of listed companies, alongside its underlying mechanisms. Based on a panel data compilation from 4421 Chinese listed companies spanning 2007 to 2021, the research demonstrates that EPU significantly increases the cash dividends of listed companies. Our findings resolve endogeneity issues and are robust to different variable definitions. The influence is more significant among smaller, non-state-owned companies, as well as those with lower equity concentration and lower financial constraints. We further find that EPU heightens investors’ demand for dividends, increases agency costs, and reduces business growth opportunities to improve companies’ dividend distribution tendency. Moreover, we find that increasing dividend payout when EPU increases is aligned with shareholders’ wealth maximization objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuanzhen Li & Liang Zhao & Yiwen Zhang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash dividend policy: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-03055-9
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-03055-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-03055-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-03055-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. David, Thomas & Ginglinger, Edith, 2016. "When cutting dividends is not bad news: The case of optional stock dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-191.
    3. La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2000. "Investor protection and corporate governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-27.
    4. McClure, Ross & Lanis, Roman & Wells, Peter & Govendir, Brett, 2018. "The impact of dividend imputation on corporate tax avoidance: The case of shareholder value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 492-514.
    5. Dittmar, Amy & Mahrt-Smith, Jan & Servaes, Henri, 2003. "International Corporate Governance and Corporate Cash Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 111-133, March.
    6. Hollis Ashbaugh‐Skaife & Daniel W. Collins & William R. Kinney Jr & Ryan Lafond, 2009. "The Effect of SOX Internal Control Deficiencies on Firm Risk and Cost of Equity," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 1-43, March.
    7. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2013. "CEO overconfidence and dividend policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 440-463.
    8. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    9. Brockman, Paul & Unlu, Emre, 2009. "Dividend policy, creditor rights, and the agency costs of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 276-299, May.
    10. Tao, Qizhi & Wei, K.C. John & Xiang, Xueman & Yi, Biao, 2022. "Board directors' foreign experience and firm dividend payouts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Hillmann, Lisa, 2023. "Dividend taxation and the ownership structure of private firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Datta, Sudip & Doan, Trang & Iskandar-Datta, Mai, 2019. "Policy uncertainty and the maturity structure of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    13. Zhu, Yanli & Sun, Yingnan & Xiang, Xinyu, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise value: Evidence from Chinese listed enterprises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    14. Nguyen, Nam H. & Phan, Hieu V., 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and Mergers and Acquisitions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 613-644, April.
    15. Atanassov, Julian & Mandell, Aaron J., 2018. "Corporate governance and dividend policy: Evidence of tunneling from master limited partnerships," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 106-132.
    16. Si, Deng-Kui & Wan, Shen & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Kishwar Ali & Hu Hongbing & Chee Yoong Liew & Du Jianguo, 2023. "Governance perspective and the effect of economic policy uncertainty on financial stability: evidence from developed and developing economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1971-2002, June.
    18. Çolak, Gönül & Durnev, Art & Qian, Yiming, 2017. "Political Uncertainty and IPO Activity: Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2523-2564, December.
    19. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    20. Floyd, Eric & Li, Nan & Skinner, Douglas J., 2015. "Payout policy through the financial crisis: The growth of repurchases and the resilience of dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 299-316.
    21. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    22. Lie, Erik, 2005. "Operating performance following dividend decreases and omissions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 27-53, December.
    23. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    24. Stephen A. Ross, 1977. "The Determination of Financial Structure: The Incentive-Signalling Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    25. Ivalina Kalcheva & Karl V. Lins, 2007. "International Evidence on Cash Holdings and Expected Managerial Agency Problems," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1087-1112.
    26. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1125-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Borochin, Paul & Yang, Jie, 2017. "The effects of institutional investor objectives on firm valuation and governance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 171-199.
    28. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    29. Mark T. Leary & Roni Michaely, 2011. "Determinants of Dividend Smoothing: Empirical Evidence," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(10), pages 3197-3249.
    30. Chen, Jie & Leung, Woon Sau & Goergen, Marc, 2017. "The impact of board gender composition on dividend payouts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 86-105.
    31. Fluck, Zsuzsanna, 1999. "The Dynamics of the Management-Shareholder Conflict," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 379-404.
    32. Alan S. Blinder & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1015-1045, April.
    33. Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga & Ciaran Driver, 2001. "The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 361-382, September.
    34. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    35. Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2010. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1909-1940.
    36. repec:eme:mfppss:v:34:y:2008:i:12:p:953-964 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Banerjee, Shantanu & Homroy, Swarnodeep, 2018. "Managerial incentives and strategic choices of firms with different ownership structures," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 314-330.
    38. Zwiebel, Jeffrey, 1996. "Dynamic Capital Structure under Managerial Entrenchment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1197-1215, December.
    39. Bonfim, Diana & Custódio, Cláudia & Raposo, Clara, 2023. "Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 658-688.
    40. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    41. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    42. Li, Xiao-Ming & Qiu, Mei, 2021. "The joint effects of economic policy uncertainty and firm characteristics on capital structure: Evidence from US firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    43. Kong, Qunxi & Li, Rongrong & Wang, Ziqi & Peng, Dan, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment decisions: Dilemma or opportunity?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    44. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    45. Waisman, Maya & Ye, Pengfei & Zhu, Yun, 2015. "The effect of political uncertainty on the cost of corporate debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 106-117.
    46. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2020. "Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    47. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 227-254, August.
    48. Brockman, Paul & Tresl, Jiri & Unlu, Emre, 2014. "The impact of insider trading laws on dividend payout policy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 263-287.
    49. Qunfeng LIAO & Seyed MEHDIAN, 2016. "Measuring Financial Distress And Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Index Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 33-51, June.
    50. Titman, Sheridan & Wei, Chishen & Zhao, Bin, 2022. "Corporate actions and the manipulation of retail investors in China: An analysis of stock splits," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 762-787.
    51. Xu, Yongxin & Xuan, Yuhao & Zheng, Gaoping, 2021. "Internet searching and stock price crash risk: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 255-275.
    52. Bushra Sarwar & Xiao Ming & Muhammad Husnain, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and dividend sustainability: new insight from emerging equity market of China," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 204-223, January.
    53. Tian, Jing & Li, Haiwei & You, Pin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank loan, and corporate innovation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    54. Easterbrook, Frank H, 1984. "Two Agency-Cost Explanations of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 650-659, September.
    55. Jiang, Fuxiu & Ma, Yunbiao & Shi, Beibei, 2017. "Stock liquidity and dividend payouts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 295-314.
    56. Hyunseob Kim & Howard Kung, 2017. "The Asset Redeployability Channel: How Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 245-280.
    57. Larry H. P. Lang & Mara Faccio & Leslie Young, 2001. "Dividends and Expropriation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 54-78, March.
    58. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H. S., 2000. "The effect of market segmentation on stock prices: The China syndrome," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1875-1902, December.
    59. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    60. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    61. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    62. Sun, Zeyu & Li, Xiaohui & Xie, Jing & Cheng, C.S., 2023. "How does dividend payout affect corporate social responsibility? A channel analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Mansi, Sattar & Wang, He (Helen), 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, institutional environments, and corporate cash holdings," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Ahmad, Muhammad Farooq & Aziz, Saqib & El-Khatib, Rwan & Kowalewski, Oskar, 2023. "Firm-level political risk and dividend payout," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen & Nejadmalayeri, Ali & Al-Thaqeb, Saud, 2021. "Corporate cash holdings, agency problems, and economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty around the world: Implications for Vietnam," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Cui, Di & Ding, Mingfa & Han, Yikai & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Foreign shareholders, relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Xiangyuan Meng & Haoge Guo & Jie Li, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4491-4529, December.
    9. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Quader, Syed Manzur, 2023. "The interplay between uncertainty, managerial decision making, and firm value: Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Biswas, Sonny & Zhai, Wei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border lending," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Deng, Wei & Gao, Lei & Xing, Fei & Yang, Ming, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty, bank deposits, and liability structure," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Christos Floros & Emilios Galariotis & Konstantinos Gkillas & Efstathios Magerakis & Constantin Zopounidis, 2024. "Time-varying firm cash holding and economic policy uncertainty nexus: a quantile regression approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(2), pages 859-895, October.
    14. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    15. Tran, Dung Viet & Hassan, M. Kabir & Alam, Ahmed W. & Pezzo, Luca & Abdul-Majid, Mariani, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, agency problem, and funding structure: Evidence from U.S. banking industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. D'Mello, Ranjan & Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    18. Hassan, M. Kabir & Karim, Md. Sydul & Kozlowski, Steven E., 2022. "Implications of public corruption for local firms: Evidence from corporate debt maturity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    20. Kambar Farooq & Muhammad Azeem & Chin Man Chui & Jun (Tony) Ruan, 2023. "Board Connections and Dividend Policy," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 59(4), pages 983-1040, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-03055-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.