A resilience assessment model for dry bulk shipping supply chains: the case of the Ukraine grain corridor

Maritime supply chains are critical elements in global freight movements, but they are vulnerable to interruption owing to various events, such as port disruptions, natural hazards and war-related risks. The Ukrainian-Russian war has proved to be a significant disruptor of maritime supply chains. However, under the United Nations grain corridor initiative, approximately 14 million tons of Ukrainian grain exports have been loaded in the first 6 months of its operation, clearly indicating the supply chain resilience present within the grain corridor. This suggests the need for an in-depth investigation of the internal characteristics and dynamics of the system. Hence, within the context of the grain corridor initiative, this study addresses the resilience of the dry bulk supply chain and its underlying ‘dynamic capability’ and inherent adaptability and responsiveness. A novel assessment model is proposed for addressing the role of tonnage flexibility. Accordingly, objective and subjective multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in an integrated approach that incorporates the concept of resilience as embodied in the dimensions of density, demand, dispersion, diversity, and utilization. Moreover, the prompt and flexible response of dry bulk fleets to disruptive occurrences can be explained by the dynamic capabilities view. Perhaps counterintuitively, the results reveal that the Panamax vessel size category is the most significant for ensuring the recovery of maritime supply chains, while the small dry bulk size category is less important, despite its vital role and prevalence within the wider context of general Black Sea maritime transportation.