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Dynamic speed choice in bulk shipping

Author

Listed:
  • Roar Adland

    (Norwegian School of Economics)

  • Haiying Jia

    (Center for Applied Research (SNF))

Abstract

Dynamic speed choice in real-life seaway and market conditions, when subject to technical and contractual constraints, is a highly complex problem. In this paper, we investigate dynamic speed choice using a large dataset of average sailing speeds for nearly 18,000 individual voyages as calculated from Automated Identification System (AIS) data. Using a set of multiple regression models, we expand the traditional analysis of speed determinants, from only macroeconomic variables to also include proxies for organizational constraints, operator quality, trading pattern, loading conditions, technical constraints and ship-specific variables. We find that owners do not appear to adjust vessel speeds based on freight market conditions and fuel prices, as argued in classical maritime economic theory. Instead, vessel-specific variables such as age and design speed, as well as operational factors such as loading conditions, show some explanatory power. The poor model fit may be due to factors outside our model, such as weather conditions and contractual limitations. From a policy point of view, the results actually suggest that higher fuel prices do not contribute to a reduction in vessel speeds and emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Roar Adland & Haiying Jia, 2018. "Dynamic speed choice in bulk shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 20(2), pages 253-266, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:20:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41278-016-0002-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-016-0002-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pierre Cariou & François-Charles Wolff, 2011. "Do Port State Control Inspections Influence Flag- and Class-hopping Phenomena in Shipping?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(2), pages 155-177, May.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Pierre Cariou & Ronald A. Halim & Bradley J. Rickard, 2022. "Ship-owner Response to Carbon Taxes: Industry and Environmental Implications," Applied Economics and Policy Working Paper Series 320702, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A destination choice model for very large gas carriers (VLGC) loading from the US Gulf," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1267-1275.
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    8. Adland, Roar & Cariou, Pierre & Wolff, Francois-Charles, 2020. "Optimal ship speed and the cubic law revisited: Empirical evidence from an oil tanker fleet," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Cariou, Pierre & Halim, Ronald A. & Rickard, Bradley J., 2023. "Ship-owner response to carbon taxes: Industry and environmental implications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    10. Giulia Brancaccio & Myrto Kalouptsidi & Theodore Papageorgiou, 2020. "Geography, Transportation, and Endogenous Trade Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 657-691, March.
    11. Kei Kanamoto & Liwen Murong & Minato Nakashima & Ryuichi Shibasaki, 2021. "Can maritime big data be applied to shipping industry analysis? Focussing on commodities and vessel sizes of dry bulk carriers," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(2), pages 211-236, June.
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