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Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecast error in supply chain planning models

Author

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  • R Fildes

    (Lancaster University)

  • B Kingsman

    (Lancaster University)

Abstract

This paper develops a framework for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on unit costs and customer service levels in the supply chain, including Material Requirements Planning (MRP) type manufacturing systems. The aim is to overcome the methodological limitations and confusion that has arisen in much earlier research. To illustrate the issues, the problem of estimating the value of improving forecasting accuracy for a manufacturer was simulated. The topic is of practical importance because manufacturers spend large sums of money in purchasing and staffing forecasting support systems to achieve more accurate forecasts. In order to estimate the value a two-level MRP system with lot sizing where the product is manufactured for stock was simulated. Final product demand was generated by two commonly occurring stochastic processes and with different variances. Different levels of forecasting error were then introduced to arrive at corresponding values for improving forecasting accuracy. The quantitative estimates of improved accuracy were found to depend on both the demand generating process and the forecasting method. Within this more complete framework, the substantive results confirm earlier research that the best lot sizing rules for the deterministic situation are the worst whenever there is uncertainty in demand. However, size matters, both in the demand uncertainty and forecasting errors. The quantitative differences depend on service level and also the form of demand uncertainty. Unit costs for a given service level increase exponentially as the uncertainty in the demand data increases. The paper also estimates the effects of mis-specification of different sizes of forecast error in addition to demand uncertainty. In those manufacturing problems with high demand uncertainty and high forecast error, improved forecast accuracy should lead to substantial percentage improvements in unit costs. Methodologically, the results demonstrate the need to simulate demand uncertainty and the forecasting process separately.

Suggested Citation

  • R Fildes & B Kingsman, 2011. "Incorporating demand uncertainty and forecast error in supply chain planning models," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 483-500, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1057_jors.2010.40
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.40
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    2. George Athanasopoulos & Nikolaos Kourentzes, 2021. "On the Evaluation of Hierarchical Forecasts," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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    4. Giovanni Battista Gardino & Rosa Meo & Giuseppe Craparotta, 0. "Multi-view Latent Learning Applied to Fashion Industry," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    5. Gardner, Everette Shaw & Acar, Yavuz, 2016. "The forecastability quotient reconsidered," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1208-1211.
    6. repec:dgr:rugsom:14003-opera is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bruzda, Joanna, 2019. "Quantile smoothing in supply chain and logistics forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 122-139.
    8. Barrow, Devon K. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2016. "Distributions of forecasting errors of forecast combinations: Implications for inventory management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 24-33.
    9. Toyin Clottey, 2016. "Development and evaluation of a rolling horizon purchasing policy for cores," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 2780-2790, May.
    10. Athanasopoulos, George & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2023. "On the evaluation of hierarchical forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1502-1511.
    11. Sagaert, Yves R. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & De Vuyst, Stijn & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Desmet, Bram, 2019. "Incorporating macroeconomic leading indicators in tactical capacity planning," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 12-19.
    12. Giovanni Battista Gardino & Rosa Meo & Giuseppe Craparotta, 2021. "Multi-view Latent Learning Applied to Fashion Industry," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 53-69, February.
    13. Niu, Baozhuang & Dai, Zhipeng & Zhuo, Xiaopo, 2019. "Co-opetition effect of promised-delivery-time sensitive demand on air cargo carriers’ big data investment and demand signal sharing decisions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 29-44.
    14. E. Vercher & A. Corberán-Vallet & J. Segura & J. Bermúdez, 2012. "Initial conditions estimation for improving forecast accuracy in exponential smoothing," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(2), pages 517-533, July.

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