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The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming

Author

Listed:
  • J Medhurst

    (Larrainzar Consulting Solutions Ltd)

  • I M Stanton

    (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

  • H Bird

    (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

  • A Berry

    (Defence Science and Technology Laboratories)

Abstract

This paper describes a novel experimental method for determining the value of different types of information to military decision makers. The experimental method used a simple scenario and a set of serials constructed from cards, each presenting a single piece of information and presented sequentially. Each of a number of pairs of players were taken through the scenario and asked to judge when they would make each of a pair of escalating responses to the situation. The data proved well suited to analysis using a probit model and is consistent with the hypothesis of a Bayesian decision mechanism with normally distributed ‘action points’. The methodology allowed the determination of weights for each of a number of different classes of information, together with estimates of the human and situational elements of variation, including estimates of the ‘prior belief’ of the different pairs of players.

Suggested Citation

  • J Medhurst & I M Stanton & H Bird & A Berry, 2009. "The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 747-757, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602616
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R A Forder, 2004. "Operational research in the UK Ministry of Defence: an overview," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 319-332, April.
    2. L Dodd & J Moffat & J Smith, 2006. "Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 643-654, June.
    3. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.
    4. J Moffat & S Witty, 2002. "Bayesian decision making and military command and control," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(7), pages 709-718, July.
    5. J Moffat, 2000. "Representing the command and control process in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(4), pages 431-439, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bell, Simon, 2012. "DPSIR=A Problem Structuring Method? An exploration from the “Imagine” approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 350-360.

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