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Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

Author

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  • L Dodd

    (Intelligence Systems)

  • J Moffat

    (PCS Department)

  • J Smith

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.

Suggested Citation

  • L Dodd & J Moffat & J Smith, 2006. "Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 643-654, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602051
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602051
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Smith, J. Q. & Harrison, P. J. & Zeeman, E. C., 1981. "The analysis of some discontinuous decision processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 30-43, May.
    2. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.
    3. J Moffat & S Witty, 2002. "Bayesian decision making and military command and control," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(7), pages 709-718, July.
    4. J Moffat, 2000. "Representing the command and control process in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(4), pages 431-439, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kalloniatis, Alexander C. & McLennan-Smith, Timothy A. & Roberts, Dale O., 2020. "Modelling distributed decision-making in Command and Control using stochastic network synchronisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 588-603.
    2. Moffat, James & Medhurst, John, 2009. "Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1147-1157, August.
    3. J Medhurst & I M Stanton & H Bird & A Berry, 2009. "The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 747-757, June.
    4. Jim Q. Smith & Lorraine Dodd, 2012. "Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 165-171, June.
    5. J Medhurst & I Stanton & A Berry, 2010. "Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(11), pages 1561-1571, November.
    6. W Hobbs & N J Curtis, 2011. "Theory and application of perceptual positions to data collection and analysis in military environments," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1753-1764, September.
    7. Mike Metcalfe, 2013. "A Pragmatic System of Decision Criteria," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 56-64, January.

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