IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v57y2006i6d10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602051.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

Author

Listed:
  • L Dodd

    (Intelligence Systems)

  • J Moffat

    (PCS Department)

  • J Smith

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.

Suggested Citation

  • L Dodd & J Moffat & J Smith, 2006. "Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(6), pages 643-654, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602051
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602051
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602051
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602051?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.
    2. J Moffat & S Witty, 2002. "Bayesian decision making and military command and control," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(7), pages 709-718, July.
    3. J Moffat, 2000. "Representing the command and control process in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(4), pages 431-439, April.
    4. Smith, J. Q. & Harrison, P. J. & Zeeman, E. C., 1981. "The analysis of some discontinuous decision processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 30-43, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. J Medhurst & I Stanton & A Berry, 2010. "Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(11), pages 1561-1571, November.
    2. Mike Metcalfe, 2013. "A Pragmatic System of Decision Criteria," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 56-64, January.
    3. Kalloniatis, Alexander C. & McLennan-Smith, Timothy A. & Roberts, Dale O., 2020. "Modelling distributed decision-making in Command and Control using stochastic network synchronisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 588-603.
    4. Moffat, James & Medhurst, John, 2009. "Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1147-1157, August.
    5. J Medhurst & I M Stanton & H Bird & A Berry, 2009. "The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 747-757, June.
    6. Jim Q. Smith & Lorraine Dodd, 2012. "Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 165-171, June.
    7. W Hobbs & N J Curtis, 2011. "Theory and application of perceptual positions to data collection and analysis in military environments," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1753-1764, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J Medhurst & I M Stanton & H Bird & A Berry, 2009. "The value of information to decision makers: an experimental approach using card-based decision gaming," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(6), pages 747-757, June.
    2. J Medhurst & I Stanton & A Berry, 2010. "Risk taking by decision makers—using card-based decision gaming to develop models of behaviour," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(11), pages 1561-1571, November.
    3. Jim Q. Smith & Lorraine Dodd, 2012. "Regulating Autonomous Agents Facing Conflicting Objectives: A Command and Control Example," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 165-171, June.
    4. Kalloniatis, Alexander C. & McLennan-Smith, Timothy A. & Roberts, Dale O., 2020. "Modelling distributed decision-making in Command and Control using stochastic network synchronisation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 588-603.
    5. Moffat, James & Medhurst, John, 2009. "Modelling of human decision-making in simulation models of conflict using experimental gaming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1147-1157, August.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1990_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Strong, Peter & Shenvi, Aditi & Yu, Xuewen & Papamichail, K. Nadia & Wynn, Henry P. & Smith, Jim Q., 2023. "Building a Bayesian decision support system for evaluating COVID-19 countermeasure strategies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Lorraine Dodd, 2019. "Choice-making and choose-ables: making decision agents more human and choosy," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(1), pages 101-115, May.
    9. S Robinson, 2005. "Discrete-event simulation: from the pioneers to the present, what next?," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(6), pages 619-629, June.
    10. S Robinson & T Alifantis & J S Edwards & J Ladbrook & A Waller, 2005. "Knowledge-based improvement: simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations system," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(8), pages 912-921, August.
    11. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1990. "Monetary policy reaction functions and saving-investment correlations: Some cross-country evidence," Research Discussion Papers 11/1990, Bank of Finland.
    12. Tong, Howell, 2015. "Threshold models in time series analysis—Some reflections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 485-491.
    13. Robinson, Stewart, 2002. "General concepts of quality for discrete-event simulation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 103-117, April.
    14. Koskela, Erkki & Virén, Matti, 1990. "Monetary policy reaction functions and saving-investment correlations: Some cross-country evidence," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/1990, Bank of Finland.
    15. J Moffat & I Campbell & P Glover, 2004. "Validation of the mission-based approach to representing command and control in simulation models of conflict," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(4), pages 340-349, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:6:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.