IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v55y2004i8d10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601739.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time

Author

Listed:
  • J-G Cho

    (Dong-Eui University)

  • B-J Yum

    (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)

Abstract

For a PERT network, a new method is developed for estimating the criticality index of activity i (ACI i ) as a function of the expected duration of activity i (μ i ) and for the sensitivity analysis of the expected project completion time (μ T ) with respect to μ i . The proposed method evaluates the frequency of activity i being on the critical path, and thereby its ACI i using Monte Carlo simulation or a Taguchi orthogonal array experiment at several values of μ i , fits a logistic regression model for estimating ACI i as a function of μ i , and then, using the estimated ACI i function, evaluates the amount of change in μ T when μ i is changed by a given amount. Unlike the previous works, the proposed method models ACI i as a nonlinear (ie, logistic) function of μ i , which can be used to estimate the amount of change in μ T for a variety of changes in μ i . Computational results indicate that the performance of the proposed method is comparable to that of direct Monte Carlo simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • J-G Cho & B-J Yum, 2004. "Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(8), pages 850-859, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:8:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601739
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George B. Kleindorfer, 1971. "Bounding Distributions for a Stochastic Acyclic Network," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 19(7), pages 1586-1601, December.
    2. Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2000. "On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 220-238, December.
    3. Elmaghraby, S. E. & Fathi, Y. & Taner, M. R., 1999. "On the sensitivity of project variability to activity mean duration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 219-232, September.
    4. R. A. Bowman, 1995. "Efficient Estimation of Arc Criticalities in Stochastic Activity Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(1), pages 58-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbosa, Valmir C. & Ferreira, Fernando M.L. & Kling, Daniel V. & Lopes, Eduardo & Protti, Fbio & Schmitz, Eber A., 2009. "Structured construction and simulation of nondeterministic stochastic activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 266-274, October.
    2. Azaron, Amir & Fatemi Ghomi, S.M.T., 2008. "Lower bound for the mean project completion time in dynamic PERT networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 120-127, April.
    3. R A Bowman, 2007. "Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1354-1360, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vaseghi, Forough & Martens, Annelies & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2024. "Analysis of the impact of corrective actions for stochastic project networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(2), pages 503-518.
    2. Fernando Acebes & Javier Pajares & Jose M Gonzalez-Varona & Adolfo Lopez-Paredes, 2024. "Project Risk Management from the bottom-up: Activity Risk Index," Papers 2406.00078, arXiv.org.
    3. Madadi, M. & Iranmanesh, H., 2012. "A management oriented approach to reduce a project duration and its risk (variability)," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 751-761.
    4. Fernando Acebes & Javier Pajares & José M. González-Varona & Adolfo López-Paredes, 2021. "Project risk management from the bottom-up: Activity Risk Index," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 29(4), pages 1375-1396, December.
    5. Elmaghraby, S. E. & Fathi, Y. & Taner, M. R., 1999. "On the sensitivity of project variability to activity mean duration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 219-232, September.
    6. R A Bowman, 2007. "Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1354-1360, October.
    7. Martens, Annelies & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2019. "The impact of applying effort to reduce activity variability on the project time and cost performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 442-453.
    8. Bowman, R. Alan, 2006. "Developing activity duration specification limits for effective project control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 1191-1204, October.
    9. Luz Stella Cardona-Meza & Gerard Olivar-Tost, 2017. "Modeling and Simulation of Project Management through the PMBOK® Standard Using Complex Networks," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-12, December.
    10. Li, Xiaobo & Natarajan, Karthik & Teo, Chung-Piaw & Zheng, Zhichao, 2014. "Distributionally robust mixed integer linear programs: Persistency models with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 459-473.
    11. Gary Mitchell, 2010. "On Calculating Activity Slack in Stochastic Project Networks," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 2(1), pages 78-85, March.
    12. R. Alan Bowman, 2003. "Sensitivity curves for effective project management," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 481-497, August.
    13. Vanhoucke, Mario, 2011. "On the dynamic use of project performance and schedule risk information during projecttracking," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 416-426, August.
    14. Vanhoucke, Mario, 2010. "Using activity sensitivity and network topology information to monitor project time performance," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 359-370, October.
    15. Xing Pan & Lunhu Hu & Ziling Xin & Shenghan Zhou & Yanmei Lin & Yong Wu, 2018. "Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    16. Stephen P. Boyd & Seung-Jean Kim & Dinesh D. Patil & Mark A. Horowitz, 2005. "Digital Circuit Optimization via Geometric Programming," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 899-932, December.
    17. Song, Jie & Martens, Annelies & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2021. "Using Schedule Risk Analysis with resource constraints for project control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 736-752.
    18. Yousry Abdelkader, 2010. "Adjustment of the moments of the project completion times when activity times are exponentially distributed," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 503-514, December.
    19. Xiong, Jian & Leus, Roel & Yang, Zhenyu & Abbass, Hussein A., 2016. "Evolutionary multi-objective resource allocation and scheduling in the Chinese navigation satellite system project," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(2), pages 662-675.
    20. Richard E. Wendell & Timothy J. Lowe & Mike M. Gordon, 2023. "Dangers in using earned duration and other earned value metrics to measure a project’s schedule performance," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(2), pages 665-680, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:55:y:2004:i:8:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601739. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.