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Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters

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  • R A Bowman

    (Graduate College of Union University)

Abstract

Using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique network model of a project schedule, a method is presented to estimate the effects of changes to the probability distribution for any activity time on several project schedule measures. Computational results show this method to be significantly faster and more accurate than a previously published approach, which estimated the effects of changes to the means of normally distributed activity times on expected project completion time and activity criticality. In addition, the new method allows more flexibility to model changes to activity times, including independent changes to parameters and even changes in the distributional form. Finally, the new method estimates the effects of these changes on several additional performance measures, including the probability of meeting a specified due date and a project (penalty) cost function. All desired estimates are obtained from a single set of simulation runs.

Suggested Citation

  • R A Bowman, 2007. "Efficient sensitivity analysis of PERT network performance measures to significant changes in activity time parameters," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1354-1360, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:58:y:2007:i:10:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602297
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602297
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R.A. Bowman, 2001. "Due Date-Based Metrics for Activity Importance in Stochastic Activity Networks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 102(1), pages 39-48, February.
    2. Richard M. Van Slyke, 1963. "Letter to the Editor---Monte Carlo Methods and the PERT Problem," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 11(5), pages 839-860, October.
    3. Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2000. "On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 220-238, December.
    4. D. G. Malcolm & J. H. Roseboom & C. E. Clark & W. Fazar, 1959. "Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 7(5), pages 646-669, October.
    5. J-G Cho & B-J Yum, 2004. "Functional estimation of activity criticality indices and sensitivity analysis of expected project completion time," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(8), pages 850-859, August.
    6. Elmaghraby, S. E. & Fathi, Y. & Taner, M. R., 1999. "On the sensitivity of project variability to activity mean duration," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 219-232, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cui, Nanfang & Demeulemeester, Erik & Bie, Li, 2016. "Incorporation of activity sensitivity measures into buffer management to manage project schedule riskAuthor-Name: Hu, Xuejun," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 717-727.
    2. Catalina García & José Pérez & Salvador Rambaud, 2010. "Proposal of a new distribution in PERT methodology," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 181(1), pages 515-538, December.

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