IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v14y2013i1d10.1057_jam.2013.2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector machine approach in the task of forecasting and trading

Author

Listed:
  • Christian L Dunis
  • Spiros D Likothanassis
  • Andreas S Karathanasopoulos
  • Georgios S Sermpinis
  • Konstantinos A Theofilatos

    (Pattern Recognition Laboratory, University of Patras)

Abstract

The motivation of this article is to introduce a novel hybrid Genetic algorithm–Support Vector Machines method when applied to the task of forecasting and trading the daily and weekly returns of the FTSE 100 and ASE 20 indices. This is done by benchmarking its results with a Higher-Order Neural Network, a Naïve Bayesian Classifier, an autoregressive moving average model, a moving average convergence/divergence model, plus a naïve and a buy and hold strategy. More specifically, the trading performance of all models is investigated in forecast and trading simulations on the FTSE 100 and ASE 20 time series over the period January 2001–May 2010, using the last 18 months for out-of-sample testing. As it turns out, the proposed hybrid model does remarkably well and outperforms its benchmarks in terms of correct directional change and trading performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian L Dunis & Spiros D Likothanassis & Andreas S Karathanasopoulos & Georgios S Sermpinis & Konstantinos A Theofilatos, 2013. "A hybrid genetic algorithm–support vector machine approach in the task of forecasting and trading," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(1), pages 52-71, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:14:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1057_jam.2013.2
    DOI: 10.1057/jam.2013.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jam.2013.2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jam.2013.2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adeodato, Paulo J.L. & Arnaud, Adrian L. & Vasconcelos, Germano C. & Cunha, Rodrigo C.L.V. & Monteiro, Domingos S.M.P., 2011. "MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 661-671.
    2. Shapiro, Arnold F., 2000. "A Hitchhiker's guide to the techniques of adaptive nonlinear models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 119-132, May.
    3. Christian L. Dunis & Jason Laws & Andreas Karathanassopoulos, 2011. "Modelling and trading the Greek stock market with mixed neural network models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(23), pages 1793-1808, December.
    4. Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian L. Dunis, 2013. "Modelling and trading the realised volatility of the FTSE100 futures with higher order neural networks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 165-179, March.
    5. Adeodato, Paulo J.L. & Arnaud, Adrian L. & Vasconcelos, Germano C. & Cunha, Rodrigo C.L.V. & Monteiro, Domingos S.M.P., 2011. "MLP ensembles improve long term prediction accuracy over single networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 661-671, July.
    6. Christian Dunis & Jason Laws & Ben Evans, 2008. "Trading futures spread portfolios: applications of higher order and recurrent networks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 503-521.
    7. Panda, Chakradhara & Narasimhan, V., 2007. "Forecasting exchange rate better with artificial neural network," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 227-236.
    8. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Charalambous, Chris & Martzoukos, Spiros H., 2008. "Pricing and trading European options by combining artificial neural networks and parametric models with implied parameters," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1415-1433, March.
    9. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November.
    10. José M. Matías & Juan C. Reboredo, 2012. "Forecasting Performance of Nonlinear Models for Intraday Stock Returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 172-188, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vitor Azevedo & Christopher Hoegner, 2023. "Enhancing stock market anomalies with machine learning," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 195-230, January.
    2. Kang, Haijun & Zong, Xiangyu & Wang, Jianyong & Chen, Haonan, 2023. "Binary gravity search algorithm and support vector machine for forecasting and trading stock indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 507-526.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sermpinis, Georgios & Theofilatos, Konstantinos & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Georgopoulos, Efstratios F. & Dunis, Christian, 2013. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and Particle Swarm Optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 528-540.
    2. Georgios Sermpinis & Andreas Karathanasopoulos & Rafael Rosillo & David Fuente, 2021. "Neural networks in financial trading," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 293-308, February.
    3. Vitor Azevedo & Christopher Hoegner, 2023. "Enhancing stock market anomalies with machine learning," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 195-230, January.
    4. Elsy Gómez-Ramos & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2013. "A Review of Artificial Neural Networks: How Well Do They Perform in Forecasting Time Series?," Analítika, Analítika - Revista de Análisis Estadístico/Journal of Statistical Analysis, vol. 6(2), pages 7-15, Diciembre.
    5. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2022. "Forecasting natural gas consumption using Bagging and modified regularization techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Ait Maatallah, Othman & Achuthan, Ajit & Janoyan, Kerop & Marzocca, Pier, 2015. "Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 191-197.
    7. Kück, Mirko & Freitag, Michael, 2021. "Forecasting of customer demands for production planning by local k-nearest neighbor models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Mishra, Sasmita & Padhy, Sudarsan, 2019. "An efficient portfolio construction model using stock price predicted by support vector regression," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Nahida Akter & Ashadun Nobi, 2018. "Investigation of the Financial Stability of S&P 500 Using Realized Volatility and Stock Returns Distribution," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-10, April.
    10. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Petar Soric & Salvador Torra, 2022. ""An application of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting"," IREA Working Papers 202201, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Hannah Thinyane & Jonathan Millin, 2011. "An Investigation into the Use of Intelligent Systems for Currency Trading," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 363-374, April.
    12. Erhard Reschenhofer & Werner Ploberger & Georg Lehecka, 2014. "Detecting fuzzy periodic patterns in futures spreads," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 487-496, May.
    13. Anderson, Richard G. & Binner, Jane M. & Schmidt, Vincent A., 2012. "Connectionist-based rules describing the pass-through of individual goods prices into trend inflation in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 174-177.
    14. Alexander, Carol & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sumawong, Anannit, 2013. "The (de)merits of minimum-variance hedging: Application to the crack spread," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 698-707.
    15. Chih-Chung Yang & Yungho Leu & Chien-Pang Lee, 2014. "A Dynamic Weighted Distancedbased Fuzzy Time Series Neural Network with Bootstrap Model for Option Price Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 115-129, June.
    16. Alexander Jakob Dautel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann & Hsin-Vonn Seow, 2020. "Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 69-96, September.
    17. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    18. Gradojevic Nikola, 2016. "Multi-criteria classification for pricing European options," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 123-139, April.
    19. Rodriguez, E. & Aguilar-Cornejo, M. & Femat, R. & Alvarez-Ramirez, J., 2014. "US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 554-564.
    20. He, Kaijian & Chen, Yanhui & Tso, Geoffrey K.F., 2018. "Forecasting exchange rate using Variational Mode Decomposition and entropy theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 15-25.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:14:y:2013:i:1:d:10.1057_jam.2013.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.