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Testing for causality in the presence of leading variables

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  • Theologos Pantelidis

Abstract

This paper provides useful guidelines to practitioners who investigate causality-in-mean and/or causality-in-variance within a system of more than two variables by means of the two-step procedure proposed by Cheung and Ng (Journal of Econometrics, 1996) and modified by Hong (Journal of Econometrics, 2001). Specifically, this study highlights cases that can mislead the researcher into reporting false causal relations among the variables under scrutiny. The results of Monte Carlo simulations reveal the seriousness of the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Theologos Pantelidis, 2015. "Testing for causality in the presence of leading variables," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:10436
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    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/10436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    2. Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
    3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    4. van Dijk, Dick & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2005. "Testing for causality in variance in the presence of breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 193-199, November.
    5. Inagaki, Kazuyuki, 2007. "Testing for volatility spillover between the British pound and the euro," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-174, June.
    6. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    7. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2005. "Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 527-539, May.
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