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Non-Uniqueness In The First Generation Balance Of Payments Crisis Models

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  • Partha Sen

    (Delhi School of Economics)

Abstract

Krugman (1979), building on Salant and Henderson(1978), showed that for a small open economy following policies inconsistent with the fixed exchange rate regime it is on, there is a precise moment when the fixed exchange rate regime would be abandoned. I show that Krugman's original model is riddled with multiple equilibria. The Central Bank may be in possession of a lot of foreign exchange reserves but not an "adequate amount" i.e., not enough to maintain a fixed exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Partha Sen, 1998. "Non-Uniqueness In The First Generation Balance Of Payments Crisis Models," Working papers 59, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
    5. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. "Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-144, June.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 71-83, October.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    8. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
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    10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
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