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Pandemic shocks and fiscal-monetary policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 dominance during January–June 2020

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  • Yothin Jinjarak
  • Rashad Ahmed
  • Sameer Nair-Desai
  • Weining Xin
  • Joshua Aizenman

Abstract

We compare the importance of market factors against that of coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) dynamics and policy responses in explaining Eurozone sovereign spreads. First, we estimate a multifactor model for changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads over 2014 to June 2019. Then, we apply a synthetic control-type procedure to extrapolate model-implied changes in CDS. The factor model does very well over the rest of 2019 but breaks down during the pandemic, especially during March 2020. We find that the March 2020 divergence is well accounted for by COVID-specific risks and associated policies, mortality outcomes, and policy announcements, rather than traditional determinants. Daily CDS widening ceased almost immediately after the European Central Bank announced the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, but the divergence between actual and model-implied changes persisted. This points to COVID-19 Dominance—widening spreads during the pandemic has led to unconventional monetary policies that primarily aim to mitigate short-run fears, temporarily pushing away concerns over fiscal risk.

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  • Yothin Jinjarak & Rashad Ahmed & Sameer Nair-Desai & Weining Xin & Joshua Aizenman, 2021. "Pandemic shocks and fiscal-monetary policies in the Eurozone: COVID-19 dominance during January–June 2020," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1557-1580.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:73:y:2021:i:4:p:1557-1580.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpab010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shi-Zheng, 2022. "Do green financing and industrial structure matter for green economic recovery? Fresh empirical insights from Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 61-73.
    2. Havlik, Annika & Heinemann, Friedrich & Helbig, Samuel & Nover, Justus, 2022. "Dispelling the shadow of fiscal dominance? Fiscal and monetary announcement effects for euro area sovereign spreads in the corona pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Hsu, Ching-Chi & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Chien, FengSheng & Li, Li & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Evaluating green innovation and performance of financial development: mediating concerns of environmental regulation," MPRA Paper 109671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    7. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "European household and business expectations during COVID-19: Towards a v-shaped recovery in confidence?," BoF Economics Review 6/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin & William F. Hahn & Matthew T. Holt, 2021. "Impacts of COVID‐19 and Price Transmission in U.S. Meat Markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 441-458, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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