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Is the fourth industrial revolution a continuation of the third industrial revolution or something new under the sun? Analyzing technological regimes using US patent data
[Vertical integration and disintegration of computer firms: a history-friendly model of the coevolution of the computer and semiconductor industries]

Author

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  • Jongho Lee
  • Keun Lee

Abstract

This study has compared the technological regimes of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and the Third Industrial Revolution (3IR) technologies. If we limit the comparison based on absolute values representing diverse elements of the technological regime, 4IR technologies are more original and science-based and have a longer technological cycle time (TCT). However, all these differences turn insignificant or reversed when the comparison is made using normalized values of variables reflecting over-time trends. Moreover, 4IR technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), have an impact on subsequent innovations in less wide fields (lower degree of generality) compared with 3IR, which means that they may not be counted as a new general-purpose technology. Furthermore, a longer TCT of 4IR technologies, including AI, means that they tend to keep citing 3IR technologies or older. In this sense, 4IR technologies are not much a radical break from past technologies but tend to be evolutionary, whereas 3IR technologies correspond to a more radical break from the past technologies because they have a shorter TCT and rely less on old technologies. At the aggregate level, technologies in the 21st century heavily rely on science, combining knowledge from more diverse fields (higher originality) and becoming longer cycled but having impact on less diverse fields (lower generality), which is true not just in a few technologies commonly associated with the so-called 4IR but across the board of technologies. Finally, although five representative 4IR technologies do not command radically different technological regimes compared with 3IR technologies, they are still outstanding, that is, they have higher originality, generality, and shorter TCT compared with the average technologies in the 2010s.

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  • Jongho Lee & Keun Lee, 2021. "Is the fourth industrial revolution a continuation of the third industrial revolution or something new under the sun? Analyzing technological regimes using US patent data [Vertical integration and ," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(1), pages 137-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:30:y:2021:i:1:p:137-159.
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    8. Damioli, Giacomo & Van Roy, Vincent & Vertesy, Daniel & Vivarelli, Marco, 2024. "AI as a new emerging technological paradigm: evidence from global patenting," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1467, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Casas, Pablo & Román, Concepción, 2023. "Early retired or automatized? Evidence from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Mario Benassi & Elena Grinza & Francesco Rentocchini & Laura Rondi, 2022. "Patenting in 4IR technologies and firm performance [Robots and jobs: evidence from US labor markets]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(1), pages 112-136.
    11. Simone d’alessandro & Tiziano Distefano & Guilherme Spinato Morlin & Davide Villani, 2023. "Policy Responses to Labour-Saving Technologies: Basic Income, Job Guarantee, and Working Time Reduction," JRC Working Papers on Social Classes in the Digital Age 2023-09, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2022. "Technological paradigms, labour creation and destruction in a multi-sector agent-based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    13. Lundvall, Bengt-Åke & Rikap, Cecilia, 2022. "China's catching-up in artificial intelligence seen as a co-evolution of corporate and national innovation systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    14. Li, Daitian & Malerba, Franco, 2024. "Technological change and the evolution of the links across sectoral systems: The case of mobile communications," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Buru Im & Keun Lee, 2021. "From Catching Up to Convergence of the Latecomer Firms: Comparing Behavior and Innovation Systems of Firms in Korea and the US," JOItmC, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, August.
    16. D'Al, Francesco & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2024. "The KSTE+I approach and the advent of AI technologies: evidence from the European regions," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1473, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Waßenhoven, Anna & Rennings, Michael & Laibach, Natalie & Bröring, Stefanie, 2023. "What constitutes a “Key Enabling Technology” for transition processes: Insights from the bioeconomy's technological landscape," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    18. D’Alessandro, Francesco & Santarelli, Enrico & Vivarelli, Marco, 2024. "The Knowledge Spillover Theory of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (KSTE+I) Approach and the Advent of AI Technologies: Evidence from the European Regions," IZA Discussion Papers 17206, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Damioli, Giacomo & Van Roy, Vincent & Vertesy, Daniel & Vivarelli, Marco, 2024. "Is Artificial Intelligence Generating a New Paradigm? Evidence from the Emerging Phase," IZA Discussion Papers 17183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forth industrial revolution; technological regimes; AI (artificial intellence); general purpose technologies; cycle time of technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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