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Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy

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Listed:
  • Jean-Paul Chavas
  • Salvatore Di Falco
  • Felice Adinolfi
  • Fabian Capitanio

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of weather on the distribution of agricultural yields. Using data on wheat and corn yields from seven Italian provinces over the period 1900–2014, a quantile autoregression model is estimated to analyse the dynamic evolution of yield distributions. We find that weather effects are asymmetric, with much larger impacts on the lower tail of the yield distribution than the upper tail. The analysis also shows slow dynamic adjustments. This indicates that adverse weather has significant and persistent effects on agricultural productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Chavas & Salvatore Di Falco & Felice Adinolfi & Fabian Capitanio, 2019. "Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(1), pages 29-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:46:y:2019:i:1:p:29-51.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/erae/jby019
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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Jiang & Bojie Fu & Yihe Lü, 2020. "Assessing Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover Conversion on Changes in Ecosystem Services Value on the Loess Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-26, September.
    2. Patalee, M.A. Buddhika & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2021. "Impact of weather on cow-calf industry locations and production in the United States," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    3. Du, Xiaodong & Dong, Fengxia, 2024. "Climate Change and Dynamics of Crop Yield Distribution," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343786, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Marie Lassalas & Sabine Duvaleix & Laure Latruffe, 2024. "The technical and economic effects of biodiversity standards on wheat production," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 51(2), pages 275-308.
    5. Kulkarni, Kedar, 2021. "Quantifying Vulnerability of Crop Yields in India to Weather Extremes," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313879, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Liu, Guangqiang & Luo, Keyu & Xu, Pengfei & Zhang, Simeng, 2023. "Climate policy uncertainty and its impact on major grain futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    7. Antonio De Pin & Pier Paolo Miglietta & Benedetta Coluccia & Fabian Capitanio, 2022. "Agricultural Insurance in the DOCG Area of Conegliano—Valdobbiadene: An Assessment of Policy Measures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-14, June.
    8. A Ford Ramsey, 2020. "Probability Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 220-239, January.
    9. Sabrina Auci & Donatella Vignani, 2020. "Climate variability and agriculture in Italy: a stochastic frontier analysis at the regional level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 381-409, July.
    10. Buddhika Patalee & Glynn T. Tonsor, 2021. "Weather effects on U.S. cow‐calf production: A long‐term panel analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 838-857, October.
    11. Uthpal Kumar & Saskia Werners & Sharmishtha Roy & Sadia Ashraf & Long Phi Hoang & Dilip Kumar Datta & Fulco Ludwig, 2020. "Role of Information in Farmers’ Response to Weather and Water Related Stresses in the Lower Bengal Delta, Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-24, August.
    12. Zhilu Sun & Teng Fu, 2022. "The Evolutionary Trends and Convergence of Cereal Yield in Europe and Central Asia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Musungu, Arnold L. & Kubik, Zaneta & Qaim, Matin, 2023. "Drought Shocks and Labor Reallocation in Rural Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia," Discussion Papers 338675, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    14. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    15. Coderoni, Silvia & Pagliacci, Francesco, 2023. "The impact of climate change on land productivity. A micro-level assessment for Italian farms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    16. Che, Yuyuan & Ghosh, Sujit K. & Rejesus, Roderick M., 2022. "Estimating Production Risk Effects with Inequality Constraints," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322189, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Pagliacci, Francesco & Salpina, Dana, 2022. "Territorial hotspots of exposure to climate disaster risk. The case of agri-food geographical indications in the Veneto Region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    18. Muhammad Yasir Yusuf & Rahmat Fadhil & T. Saiful Bahri & Hafiizh Maulana, 2021. "Comparison study of agricultural insurance government subsidy and farmers? self-subsistent premium in Indonesia," Economia agro-alimentare, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 23(2), pages 1-24.
    19. Maria Teresa Trentinaglia & Lucia Baldi & Massimo Peri, 2023. "Supporting agriculture in developing countries: new insights on the impact of official development assistance using a climate perspective," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, December.
    20. Federico Martinelli & Francisco Javier Ollero & Antonio Giovino & Anna Perrone & Abdelkader Bekki & Sanja Sikora & Rania El Nabbout & Mariem Bouhadida & Derya Yucel & Marco Bazzicalupo & Alessio Mengo, 2020. "Proposed Research for Innovative Solutions for Chickpeas and Beans in a Climate Change Scenario: The Mediterranean Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.

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