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Bounding infection prevalence by bounding selectivity and accuracy of tests: with application to early COVID-19

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  • Jörg Stoye

Abstract

SummaryI propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized as restriction on the effect of true infection status on the odds ratio of getting tested and thereby embeddable in logit specifications. The motivating application is to the COVID-19 pandemic but the strategy may also be useful elsewhere. Evaluated on data from the pandemic’s early stage, even the weakest of the novel bounds are reasonably informative. Notably, and in contrast to speculations that were widely reported at the time, they place the infection fatality rate for Italy well above the one of influenza by mid-April.

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  • Jörg Stoye, 2022. "Bounding infection prevalence by bounding selectivity and accuracy of tests: with application to early COVID-19," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:emjrnl:v:25:y:2022:i:1:p:1-14.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ectj/utab024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jörg Stoye, 2012. "New Perspectives on Statistical Decisions Under Ambiguity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 257-282, July.
    2. Christoph Rothe, 2020. "Combining Population and Study Data for Inference on Event Rates," Papers 2005.06769, arXiv.org.
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    8. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of Covid-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2006.16214, arXiv.org.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2011. "Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 261-289, August.
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    11. Toulis, Panos, 2021. "Estimation of Covid-19 prevalence from serology tests: A partial identification approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 193-213.
    12. Panos Toulis, 2020. "Estimation of COVID-19 Prevalence from Serology Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Working Papers 2020-54_Revised, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Filip Obradovi'c, 2022. "Measuring Diagnostic Test Performance Using Imperfect Reference Tests: A Partial Identification Approach," Papers 2204.00180, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    2. Kitagawa, Toru & Wang, Guanyi, 2023. "Who should get vaccinated? Individualized allocation of vaccines over SIR network," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 109-131.
    3. Bollinger, Christopher R. & van Hasselt, Martijn, 2020. "Estimating the cumulative rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).

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